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In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Jeong Eun Lee , Sitong Liu , Geoff K. Nicholls

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Jack Jewson , Jim Q. Smith , Chris Holmes

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-13 Michele Caprio , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Insup Lee

When do nonparametric Bayesian procedures ``overfit''? To shed light on this question, we consider a binary regression problem in detail and establish frequentist consistency for a certain class of Bayes procedures based on hierarchical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc Coram , Steven P. Lalley

We analyze a contrasting dynamical behavior of Gibbs-Shannon and conditional Kullback-Leibler entropies, induced by time-evolution of continuous probability distributions. The question of predominantly purpose-dependent entropy definition…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Piotr Garbaczewski

The condition for adiabatic approximation are of basic importance for the applications of the adiabatic theorem. The traditional quantitative condition was found to be necessary but not sufficient, but we do not know its physical meaning…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2011-02-02 Qian-Heng Duan , Ping-Xing Chen , Wei Wu

We provide several characterizations of convergence to unstable equilibria in nonlinear systems. Our current contribution is three-fold. First we present simple algebraic conditions for establishing local convergence of non-trivial…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-11-17 A. N. Gorban , I. Yu. Tyukin , H. Nijmeijer

We recently proposed a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions by minimization of their Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a more convenient approximating distribution. In this note we offer…

Computation · Statistics 2014-01-10 Tim Salimans

Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-24 Harlan Campbell , Paul Gustafson

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Roger Sewell

We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform integrability of the stochastic exponential E(M).

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-12 Besik Chikvinidze

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

This note discusses Watson and Holmes (2016) and their pro- posals towards more robust Bayesian decisions. While we acknowledge and commend the authors for setting new and all-encompassing prin- ciples of Bayesian robustness, and we…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-12 Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

We study asymptotic frequentist coverage and approximately Gaussian properties of Bayes posterior credible sets in nonlinear inverse problems when a Gaussian prior is placed on the parameter of the PDE. The aim is to ensure valid…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-24 Youngsoo Baek , Katerina Papagiannouli

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

We prove rates of convergence and robustness to prior misspecification within a Generalised Variational Inference (GVI) framework with bounded divergences. This addresses a significant open challenge for GVI and Federated GVI that employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-04 Terje Mildner , Paris Giampouras , Theodoros Damoulas

In the sparse normal means model, coverage of adaptive Bayesian posterior credible sets associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Ismael Castillo , Botond Szabo

In this article we consider the approximation of compact linear operators defined over tensor product Hilbert spaces. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the singular values of the problem under which we can or cannot achieve different…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-15 Fred J. Hickernell , Peter Kritzer , Henryk Wozniakowski

This paper presents the general form and essential properties of the q-optimal measure following the approach of Delbaen and Schachermayer (1996) and proves its existence under mild conditions. Most importantly, it states a necessary and…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-28 Sotirios Sabanis
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