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We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection using Gaussian process regression, which is crucial for enhancing interpretability and model regularization. Our method employs nearest neighbor Gaussian processes, serving as…

Gaussian process (GP) modulated Cox processes are widely used to model point patterns. Existing approaches require a mapping (link function) between the unconstrained GP and the positive intensity function. This commonly yields solutions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-01 Andrés F. López-Lopera , ST John , Nicolas Durrande

We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-18 Clara Grazian , Brunero Liseo

Given a random sample from a continuous multivariate distribution, Stute's representation is obtained for empirical copula processes constructed from a broad class of smooth, possibly data-adaptive nonparametric copula estimators. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-26 Ivan Kojadinovic

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-16 Adam M. Sykulski , Donald B. Percival

This paper is a continuation of work arXiv:2006.09583 devoted to establishment of the convergence rate in the strong invariance principle for cumulative processes. We establish optimal rate of convergence for the case when regeneration…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-31 Elena Bashtova , Alexey Shashkin

The empirical copula process plays a central role in the asymptotic analysis of many statistical procedures which are based on copulas or ranks. Among other applications, results regarding its weak convergence can be used to develop…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-24 Axel Bücher , Betina Berghaus , Stanislav Volgushev

Recent research has shown the potential utility of Deep Gaussian Processes. These deep structures are probability distributions, designed through hierarchical construction, which are conditionally Gaussian. In this paper, the current…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-20 Matthew M. Dunlop , Mark A. Girolami , Andrew M. Stuart , Aretha L. Teckentrup

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of inference methods used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models where evaluation of the likelihood is difficult. Conventional ABC methods often suffer from the curse of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-08 Jingjing Li , David J. Nott , Yanan Fan , Scott A. Sisson

Model selection is an important activity in modern data analysis and the conventional Bayesian approach to this problem involves calculation of marginal likelihoods for different models, together with diagnostics which examine specific…

Computation · Statistics 2008-10-31 David J. Nott , Robert J. Kohn , Mark Fielding

An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Ross D. Shachter

In simulation-based inferences for partially observed Markov process models (POMP), the by-product of the Monte Carlo filtering is an approximation of the log likelihood function. Recently, iterated filtering [14, 13] has originally been…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-26 Dao Nguyen

A key tool to carry out inference on the unknown copula when modeling a continuous multivariate distribution is a nonparametric estimator known as the empirical copula. One popular way of approximating its sampling distribution consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Ivan Kojadinovic , Kristina Stemikovskaya

We propose a principled way to define Gaussian process priors on various sets of unweighted graphs: directed or undirected, with or without loops. We endow each of these sets with a geometric structure, inducing the notions of closeness and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-28 Viacheslav Borovitskiy , Mohammad Reza Karimi , Vignesh Ram Somnath , Andreas Krause

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point patterns. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-05 Ming Teng , Farouk S. Nathoo , Timothy D. Johnson

In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-18 Jingchen Liu , Xiang Zhou

Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-19 George Wynne , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

This paper considers the problem of iterative Bayesian smoothing in nonlinear state-space models with additive noise using Gaussian approximations. Iterative methods are known to improve smoothed estimates but are not guaranteed to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Jakob Lindqvist , Simo Särkkä , Ángel F. García-Fernández , Matti Raitoharju , Lennart Svensson

When comparing approximate Gaussian process (GP) models, it can be helpful to be able to generate data from any GP. If we are interested in how approximate methods perform at scale, we may wish to generate very large synthetic datasets to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-03 Anthony Stephenson , Robert Allison , Edward Pyzer-Knapp
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