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Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Vladimir Vovk

This work is concerned with the exponential turnpike property for optimal control problems of particle systems and their mean-field limit. Under the assumption of the strict dissipativity of the cost function, exponential estimates for both…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Michael Herty , Yizhou Zhou

The first article in a two-part series (the second article being [arXiv:2205.13197]) assumes a weak local energy decay estimate holds and proves that solutions to the linear wave equation with variable coefficients in $\mathbb R^{1+3}$,…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-05-31 Shi-Zhuo Looi

Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-27 Zhi-Qiang Jiang , Gang-Jin Wang , Askery Canabarro , Boris Podobnik , Chi Xie , H. Eugene Stanley , Wei-Xing Zhou

We introduce a new class of forward performance processes that are endogenous and predictable with regards to an underlying market information set and, furthermore, are updated at discrete times. We analyze in detail a binomial model whose…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-20 Bahman Angoshtari , Thaleia Zariphopoulou , Xun Yu Zhou

The reachability analysis of recursive programs that communicate asynchronously over reliable FIFO channels calls for restrictions to ensure decidability. Our first result characterizes communication topologies with a decidable reachability…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Alexander Heussner , Jérôme Leroux , Anca Muscholl , Grégoire Sutre

We consider two models of deterministic active particles in an external potential. In the limit where the speed of a particle is fixed, both models coincide and can be formulated as a Hamiltonian system, but only if the potential is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-07-19 Arkady Pikovsky

We present a numerical method to compute expectations of functionals of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. We discuss time dependent functionals as well as deterministic time horizon problems. Our approach is based on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-31 Adrien Brandejsky , Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour

The outcome of all time series cannot be forecast, e.g. the flipping of a fair coin. Others, like the repeated {01} sequence {010101...} can be forecast exactly. Algorithmic information theory can provide a measure of forecastability that…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Glauco Amigo , Daniel Andrés Díaz-Pachón , Robert J. Marks , Charles Baylis

This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-18 Joseph E. Gaudio , Anuradha M. Annaswamy , Eugene Lavretsky , Michael A. Bolender

There are infinite processes (matrix products, continued fractions, $(r,s)$-matrix continued fractions, recurrence sequences) which, under certain circumstances, do not converge but instead diverge in a very predictable way. We give a…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-07 Douglas Bowman , James Mc Laughlin

Structural learning, a method to estimate the parameters for discrete energy minimization, has been proven to be effective in solving computer vision problems, especially in 3D scene parsing. As the complexity of the models increases,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-01-13 Mengtian Li , Daniel Huber

We study discrete-time predictable forward processes when trading times do not coincide with performance evaluation times in a binomial tree model for the financial market. The key step in the construction of these processes is to solve a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-05 Gechun Liang , Moris S. Strub , Yuwei Wang

Late time properties of moving relativistic particles are studied. Within the proper relativistic treatment of the problem we find decay curves of such particles and we show that late time deviations of the survival probability of these…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2014-10-03 K. Urbanowski

Several long-time limit theorems of one-dimensional L\'evy processes weighted and normalized by functions of its supremum are studied. The long-time limits are taken via the families of exponential times and that of constant times, called…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-18 Shosei Takeda

We consider several Hamiltonian systems perturbed by external agents, that preserve their Hamiltonian structure. We investigate the corrections to the canonical statistics resulting from coupling such systems with possibly large but finite…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-25 Matteo Colangeli , Antonio Di Francesco , Lamberto Rondoni

We consider a piecewise deterministic Markov decision process, where the expected exponential utility of total (nonnegative) cost is to be minimized. The cost rate, transition rate and post-jump distributions are under control. The state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Xin Guo , Yi Zhang

This work proposes a detectability condition for linear time-varying systems based on the exponential dichotomy spectrum. The condition guarantees the existence of an observer, whose gain is determined only by the unstable modes of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-20 Markus Tranninger , Richard Seeber , Martin Steinberger , Martin Horn , Christian Pötzsche

The power spectral density of an observable quantifies the amount of fluctuations at a given frequency and can reveal the influence of different timescales on the observable's dynamics. Here, we show that the spectral density in a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-02 Andreas Dechant

Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts have become vital for decision-makers in handling intermittent renewable energies. This paper presents a recent promising deep learning generative approach called denoising diffusion probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Esteban Hernandez Capel , Jonathan Dumas