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Estimation of the mean vector and covariance matrix is of central importance in the analysis of multivariate data. In the framework of generalized linear models, usually the variances are certain functions of the means with the normal…
We consider the elliptic Ginibre ensembles in the real, complex and symplectic symmetry classes. As the matrix size tends to infinity, we derive the asymptotic behaviour of the upper tail large deviation probabilities for both the spectral…
We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in large-scale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional probabilities of interest.…
We generalize the maximum likelihood method to non-Gaussian distribution functions by means of the multivariate Edgeworth expansion. We stress the potential interest of this technique in all those cosmological problems in which the…
We discuss estimating the probability that the sum of nonnegative independent and identically distributed random variables falls below a given threshold, i.e., $\mathbb{P}(\sum_{i=1}^{N}{X_i} \leq \gamma)$, via importance sampling (IS). We…
The theory of large deviations deals with the probabilities of rare events (or fluctuations) that are exponentially small as a function of some parameter, e.g., the number of random components of a system, the time over which a stochastic…
Variational approximation methods have proven to be useful for scaling Bayesian computations to large data sets and highly parametrized models. Applying variational methods involves solving an optimization problem, and recent research in…
We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…
We study the properties of the eigenvalues of real random matrices and their products. It is known that when the matrix elements are Gaussian-distributed independent random variables, the fraction of real eigenvalues tends to unity as the…
We study the statistical mechanics of classical two-dimensional "Coulomb gases" with general potential and arbitrary \beta, the inverse of the temperature. Such ensembles also correspond to random matrix models in some particular cases. The…
We develop a novel computational method for evaluating the extreme excursion probabilities arising for random initialization of nonlinear dynamical systems. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo or a Laplace approximation approach to…
We study the phenomenon of "crowding" near the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_{\max}$ of random $N \times N$ matrices belonging to the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE) of random matrix theory. We focus on two distinct quantities: (i) the…
In this paper, we establish a large deviations principle for a multivariate compound process induced by a multivariate Hawkes process with random marks. Our proof hinges on showing essential smoothness of the limiting cumulant of the…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…
The probability of the small deviations of the matrix $AA^T$ determinant is estimated, where $A$ is an $n\times\infty$ random matrix with centered entries having joint Gaussian distribution. The inequality obtained is sharp in a sence.
Let $M_n$ be the maximum of $n$ zero-mean gaussian variables $X_1,..,X_n$ with covariance matrix of minimum eigenvalue $\lambda$ and maximum eigenvalue $\Lambda$. Then, for $n \ge 70$, $$\Pr\{M_n \ge \lambda \left (2 \log n - 2.5 - \log(2…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
We investigate the random eigenvalues coming from the beta-Laguerre ensemble with parameter p, which is a generalization of the real, complex and quaternion Wishart matrices of parameter (n,p). In the case that the sample size n is much…
In this article, we discuss two specific classes of models - Gaussian Mixture Copula models and Mixture of Factor Analyzers - and the advantages of doing inference with gradient descent using automatic differentiation. Gaussian mixture…
We develop a simple algorithm to generate random variables described by densities equaling squared Hermite functions. As an application, we show how to generate a randomly chosen eigenvalue of a matrix from the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble…