Related papers: GDP growth rate and population
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does…
Economic growth depends on capital investments and on investments in education and innovation. The model introduced here will specifiy aggregate output as determined by aggregate supply of capital and education investment. After formulating…
Forecasting economic growth of India has been traditionally an uncertain exercise. The indicators and factors affecting economic structures and the variables required to model that captures the situation correctly is point of concern.…
This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin's (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD).…
Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The…
We describe the simulation method of modelling the population evolution using Monte Carlo based on the Penna model. Individuals in the populations are represented by their diploid genomes. Genes expressed after the minimum reproduction age…
It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
Given a geometric Brownian motion wealth process, a log-Normal lower bound is constructed for the returns of a regular investing schedule. The distribution parameters of this bound are computed recursively. For dollar cost averaging (equal…
National statistical systems are the enterprises tasked with collecting, validating and reporting societal attributes. These data serve many purposes - they allow governments to improve services, economic actors to traverse markets, and…
GDP/capita correlations are investigated in various time windows (TW), for the time interval 1990-2005. The target group of countries is the set of 25 EU members, 15 till 2004 plus the 10 countries which joined EU later on. The TW-means of…
The Lotka-Euler equation is a mathematical expression used to study population dynamics and growth, particularly in the context of demography and ecology. The growth rate $\lambda$ is the speed at which an individual produce their…
Starting from the idea of Tsallis on non-extensive statistical mechanics and the {\it q-entropy} notion, we recall the Theil index $Th$ and transform it into the $Th_q$ index. Both indices can be used to map onto themselves any time series…
Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting point is the analysis of the growth rates, which can be expressed as a function of time or as a function of the size of the growing entity.…
This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…
Increasing agricultural productivity is a gradual process with significant time lags between research and development (R&D) investment and the resulting gains. We estimate the response of US agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to…
Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically…
We propose a complete reconciliation procedure, resulting in a 'one number forecast' of the GDP figure, coherent with both Income and Expenditure sides' forecasted series, and evaluate its performance on the Australian quarterly GDP series,…
This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the personal income distribution in Brazil. Yearly samples available from 1978 to 2005 were studied and evidence was found that the complementary cumulative distribution of personal…
The article discusses a generalization of model of economic growth with constant pace, which takes into account the effects of dynamic memory. Memory means that endogenous or exogenous variable at a given time depends not only on their…