Related papers: On universal estimates for binary renewal processe…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models for describing complex joint probability distributions. The main problem for BNs is inference: Determine the probability of an event given observed evidence. Since exact inference…
Resetting plays a pivotal role in optimizing the completion time of complex first passage processes with single or multiple outcomes/exit possibilities. While it is well established that the coefficient of variation -- a statistical…
We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…
In queueing theory, Lorden's inequality can be used for bounds estimation of the moments of backward and forward renewal times. Two random variables called backwards renewal time and forward renewal time for this process are defined.…
The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…
The asymmetric switch process is a binary stochastic process that alternates between the values one and minus one, where the distributions of the time in these states may differ. Two versions of the process are considered: a non-stationary…
In this paper we consider the problem of binary hypothesis testing with finite memory systems. Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed Bernoulli random variables, with expectation $p$ under $\mathcal{H}_0$…
In neuroscience, the time elapsed since the last discharge has been used to predict the probability of the next discharge. Such predictions can be improved taking into account the last two discharge times, and possibly more. Such multi-time…
In this paper, we consider binary response models with linear quantile restrictions. Considerably generalizing previous research on this topic, our analysis focuses on an infinite collection of quantile estimators. We derive a uniform…
Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic…
This paper provides new uniform rate results for kernel estimators of absolutely regular stationary processes that are uniform in the bandwidth and in infinite-dimensional classes of dependent variables and regressors. Our results are…
In the binary hypothesis testing problem, it is well known that sequentiality in taking samples eradicates the trade-off between two error exponents, yet implementing the optimal test requires the knowledge of the underlying distributions,…
The use of surrogate models instead of computationally expensive simulation codes is very convenient in engineering. Roughly speaking, there are two kinds of surrogate models: the deterministic and the probabilistic ones. These last are…
Renewal theorems are developed for point processes with interarrival times $W_n=\xi(X_{n+1}X_n\cdots)$, where $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb Z}$ is a stochastic process with finite state space $\Sigma$ and $\xi\colon\Sigma_A\to\mathbb R$ is a H\"older…
The versatility of renewal theory is owed to its abstract formulation. Renewals can be interpreted as steps of a random walk, switching events in two-state models, domain crossings of a random motion, etc. We here discuss a renewal process…
Two series of binary observations $x_1,x_1,...$ and $y_1,y_2,...$ are presented: at each time $n\in\N$ we are given $x_n$ and $y_n$. It is assumed that the sequences are generated independently of each other by two B-processes. We are…
A common and effective method for calculating the steady-state distribution of a process under stochastic resetting is the renewal approach that requires only the knowledge of the reset-free propagator of the underlying process and the…
Nonparametric estimation of the gap time distribution in a simple renewal process may be considered a problem in survival analysis under particular sampling frames corresponding to how the renewal process is observed. This note describes…
A universal cycle for permutations is a word of length n! such that each of the n! possible relative orders of n distinct integers occurs as a cyclic interval of the word. We show how to construct such a universal cycle in which only n+1…
We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change,…