Related papers: Aggregation of autoregressive processes and long m…

The article is devoted to investigating the application of aggregating algorithms to the problem of the long-term forecasting. We examine the classic aggregating algorithms based on the exponential reweighing. For the general Vovk's…

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

For the London Stock Exchange we demonstrate that the signs of orders obey a long-memory process. The autocorrelation function decays roughly as $\tau^{-\alpha}$ with $\alpha \approx 0.6$, corresponding to a Hurst exponent $H \approx 0.7$.…

Motivated by applications to distributed optimization over networks and large-scale data processing in machine learning, we analyze the deterministic incremental aggregated gradient method for minimizing a finite sum of smooth functions…

We consider a sequence of fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, that are defined as solutions of a family of stochastic Volterra equations with kernel given by the Riesz derivative kernel, and leading coefficients given by a sequence of…

We investigate the distributional properties of two generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes whose stationary distributions are the gamma law and the bilateral gamma law, respectively. The said distributions turn out to be related to…

The approximation of a stationary time-series by finite order autoregressive (AR) and moving averages (MA) is a problem that occurs in many applications. In this paper we study asymptotic behavior of the spectral density of finite order…

Modelling amplitudes of stochastically excited oscillations in stars is a powerful tool for understanding the properties of the convective zones. For instance, it gives us information on the way turbulent eddies are temporally correlated in…

We derive sharp approximation error bounds for inverse block Toeplitz matrices associated with multivariate long-memory stationary processes. The error bounds are evaluated for both column and row sums. These results are used to prove the…

We consider a $N$-particle interacting particle system with the vision geometrical constraints and reflected noises, proposed as a model for collective behavior of individuals. We rigorously derive a continuity-type of mean-field equation…

We extend the Granger-Johansen representation theorems for I(1) and I(2) vector autoregressive processes to accommodate processes that take values in an arbitrary complex separable Hilbert space. This more general setting is of central…

Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck particles (AOUPs) are overdamped particles in an interaction potential subject to external Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noises. They can be transformed into a system of underdamped particles under additional velocity…

Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively…

We examine a previouly introduced attractor neural network model that explains the persistent activities of neurons in the anterior ventral temporal cortex of the brain. In this model, the coexistence of several attractors including…

Reciprocal processes are acausal generalizations of Markov processes introduced by Bernstein in 1932. In the literature, a significant amount of attention has been focused on developing dynamical models for reciprocal processes. In this…

Temporal coherence-persistent alignment across time-can arise between agents with fundamentally distinct dynamics, a behavior that classical diffusion models (e.g., Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, generalized Langevin equation)…

We present a purely deep neural network-based approach for estimating long memory parameters of time series models that incorporate the phenomenon of long-range dependence. Parameters, such as the Hurst exponent, are critical in…

We consider a general supervised learning problem with strongly convex and Lipschitz loss and study the problem of model selection aggregation. In particular, given a finite dictionary functions (learners) together with the prior, we…

A $d$-dimensional branching diffusion, $Z$, is investigated, where the linear attraction or repulsion between particles is competing with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck drift, with parameter $b$ (we take $b>0$ for inward O-U and $b<0$ for outward…

Tight estimates of exit/containment probabilities are of particular importance in many control problems. Yet, estimating the exit/containment probabilities is non-trivial: even for linear systems (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes), the…