Related papers: Measure changes with extinction
We give a necessary and sufficient condition on a sequence of functions on a set $\Omega$ under which there is a measure on $\Omega$ which renders the given sequence of functions a martingale. Further such a measure is unique if we impose a…
This paper extends results of Mortimer and Williams (1991) about changes of probability measure up to a random time under the assumptions that all martingales are continuous and that the random time avoids stopping times. We consider…
In this paper we present a martingale related to the exit measures of super-Brownian motion. By changing measure with this martingale in the canonical way we have a new process associated with the conditioned exit measure. This measure is…
We provide a composite version of Ville's theorem that an event has zero measure if and only if there exists a nonnegative martingale which explodes to infinity when that event occurs. This is a classic result connecting measure-theoretic…
Consider a population whose size changes stepwise by its members reproducing or dying (disappearing), but is otherwise quite general. Denote the initial (non-random) size by $Z_0$ and the size of the $n$th change by $C_n$, $n= 1, 2,…
Based on a weak convergence argument, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition that guarantees that a nonnegative local martingale is indeed a martingale. Typically, conditions of this sort are expressed in terms of integrability…
We consider a cyclically competing species model on a ring with global mixing at finite rate, which corresponds to the well-known Lotka-Volterra equation in the limit of infinite mixing rate. Within a perturbation analysis of the model from…
An important question for a probabilistic program is whether the probability mass of all its diverging runs is zero, that is that it terminates "almost surely". Proving that can be hard, and this paper presents a new method for doing so; it…
A model for large-scale evolution recently introduced by Amaral and Meyer is studied analytically and numerically. Species are located at different trophic levels and become extinct if their prey becomes extinct. It is proved that this…
Certain countably and finitely additive measures can be associated to a given nonnegative supermartingale. Under weak assumptions on the underlying probability space, existence and (non)uniqueness results for such measures are proven.
For one-dimensional diffusions on the half-line, we study a specific type of conditioning to avoid zero. We introduce supermartingales defined via concave functions with respect to the scale function. A conditioning is formulated through…
In this article, we prove that the measures $\mathbb{Q}_T$ associated to the one-dimensional Edwards' model on the interval $[0,T]$ converge to a limit measure $\mathbb{Q}$ when $T$ goes to infinity, in the following sense: for all $s\geq0$…
A tight upper bound is given on the distribution of the maximum of a supermartingale. Specifically, it is shown that if $Y$ is a semimartingale with initial value zero and quadratic variation process $[Y,Y]$ such that $Y + [Y,Y]$ is a…
When a strict local martingale is projected onto a subfiltration to which it is not adapted, the local martingale property may be lost, and the finite variation part of the projection may have singular paths. This phenomenon has…
Mass extinction is a phenomenon in the history of life on Earth when a considerable number of species go extinct over a relatively short period of time. The magnitude of extinction varies between the events, the most well known are the…
We consider a diffusion processes $\{ X_t \}$ on an interval in the natural scale. Some results are known under which $\{ X_t \}$ is a martingale, and we give simple and analytic proofs for them.
This note investigates core properties of martingales, emphasizing the measure-theoretic formulation of conditional expectation, the martingale transform, and the upcrossing lemma. These results lead to the Martingale Convergence Theorem,…
We consider a random walk with death in $[-N,N]$ moving in a time dependent environment. The environment is a system of particles which describes a current flux from $N$ to $-N$. Its evolution is influenced by the presence of the random…
Let $(Z_n)$ be a supercritical branching process in a random environment $\xi$. We study the convergence rates of the martingale $W_n = Z_n/ E[Z_n| \xi]$ to its limit $W$. The following results about the convergence almost sur (a.s.), in…
Consider a branching process $\{Z_n\}$ in a varying environment. Let $\{W_n\}$ be the natural martingale $Z_n/{\bf E}Z_n$. It converges to some random variable $W$ as $n\to\infty$. An important problem is to show that ${\bf P}(W>0)$ equals…