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Random forests are a powerful method for non-parametric regression, but are limited in their ability to fit smooth signals, and can show poor predictive performance in the presence of strong, smooth effects. Taking the perspective of random…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-08 Rina Friedberg , Julie Tibshirani , Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

Ensembles of randomized decision trees, usually referred to as random forests, are widely used for classification and regression tasks in machine learning and statistics. Random forests achieve competitive predictive performance and are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-17 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Daniel M. Roy , Yee Whye Teh

Random forest regression is a powerful non-parametric method that adapts to local data characteristics through data-driven partitioning, making it effective across diverse application domains. However, the piecewise constant nature of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Ziyi Liu , Phuc Luong , Mario Boley , Daniel F. Schmidt

Towards a future where machine learning systems will integrate into every aspect of people's lives, researching methods to interpret such systems is necessary, instead of focusing exclusively on enhancing their performance. Enriching the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Ioannis Mollas , Nick Bassiliades , Ioannis Vlahavas , Grigorios Tsoumakas

While there are many well-developed data science methods for classification and regression, there are relatively few methods for working with right-censored data. Here, we present "survival stacking": a method for casting survival analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-29 Erin Craig , Chenyang Zhong , Robert Tibshirani

Random forests have proven to be reliable predictive algorithms in many application areas. Not much is known, however, about the statistical properties of random forests. Several authors have established conditions under which their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-05 Stefan Wager

Random forests are one of the most popular machine learning methods due to their accuracy and variable importance assessment. However, random forests only provide variable importance in a global sense. There is an increasing need for such…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-25 Joshua Daniel Loyal , Ruoqing Zhu , Yifan Cui , Xin Zhang

Concept drift has potential in smart grid analysis because the socio-economic behaviour of consumers is not governed by the laws of physics. Likewise there are also applications in wind power forecasting. In this paper we present decision…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-02-16 A. Zhukov , D. Sidorov , A. Foley

We describe the use of an unsupervised Random Forest for similarity learning and improved unsupervised anomaly detection. By training a Random Forest to discriminate between real data and synthetic data sampled from a uniform distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-23 Joshua S. Harvey , Joshua Rosaler , Mingshu Li , Dhruv Desai , Dhagash Mehta

Clustered data, which arise when observations are nested within groups, are incredibly common in clinical, education, and social science research. Traditionally, a linear mixed model, which includes random effects to account for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Kevin McCoy , Zachary Wooten , Katarzyna Tomczak , Christine B. Peterson

Interpretability is crucial for doctors, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology corporations to analyze and make decisions for high stakes problems that involve human health. Tree-based methods have been widely adopted for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Rui Zhang , Rui Xin , Margo Seltzer , Cynthia Rudin

The use of cumulative incidence functions for characterizing the risk of one type of event in the presence of others has become increasingly popular over the past decade. The problems of modeling, estimation and inference have been treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-25 Youngjoo Cho , Annette M. Molinaro , Chen Hu , Robert L. Strawderman

We study rare-event simulation for a class of problems where the target hitting sets of interest are defined via modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and random forests. This problem is motivated from fast emerging studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Yuanlu Bai , Zhiyuan Huang , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

We propose Partition Tree, a novel tree-based framework for conditional density estimation over general outcome spaces that supports both continuous and categorical variables within a unified formulation. Our approach models conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Felipe Angelim , Alessandro Leite

This paper proposes a new class of predictive models for survival analysis called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). It is well known that survival analysis poses many different challenges, in particular when applied to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Elena Ballante , Pietro Muliere , Silvia Figini

Random forests, introduced by Leo Breiman in 2001, are a very effective statistical method. The complex mechanism of the method makes theoretical analysis difficult. Therefore, a simplified version of random forests, called purely random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-07-28 Robin Genuer

We develop a finite-sample, design-based theory for random forests in which each tree is a randomized conditional predictor acting on fixed covariates and the forest is their Monte Carlo average. An exact variance identity separates Monte…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Nathaniel S. O'Connell

We propose random hinge forests, a simple, efficient, and novel variant of decision forests. Importantly, random hinge forests can be readily incorporated as a general component within arbitrary computation graphs that are optimized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-02 Nathan Lay , Adam P. Harrison , Sharon Schreiber , Gitesh Dawer , Adrian Barbu

Random Forest (RF) is an ensemble supervised machine learning technique that was developed by Breiman over a decade ago. Compared with other ensemble techniques, it has proved its accuracy and superiority. Many researchers, however, believe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-18 Khaled Fawagreh , Mohamad Medhat Gaber , Eyad Elyan

The selection of grouped variables using the random forest algorithm is considered. First a new importance measure adapted for groups of variables is proposed. Theoretical insights into this criterion are given for additive regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-20 Baptiste Gregorutti , Bertrand Michel , Philippe Saint-Pierre
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