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We develop a tractable macroeconomic model that captures dynamic behaviors across multiple timescales, including business cycles. The model is anchored in a dynamic capital demand framework reflecting an interactions-based process whereby…
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI),…
In the thirty years since the end of real socialism, Bulgaria's went from having a rather radically 'different' tax system to adopting flat-rate taxation with marginal tax rates that fell from figures as high as 40% to 10% for both the…
We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However,…
Demographic transition, characterized by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernization. While typical patterns of fertility decline are observed in Western countries, their applicability to other…
Urbanization plays a crucial role in the economic development of every country. The mutual relationship between the urbanization of any country and its economic productive structure is far from being understood. We analyzed the historical…
The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method.…
We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…
Industrial development is the process by which economies learn how to produce new products and services. But how do economies learn? And who do they learn from? The literature on economic geography and economic development has emphasized…
This paper introduces the concept of Engineering Economy as a new paradigm for understanding and managing macroeconomic policy in middle-income countries seeking to escape the middle-income trap. Drawing on Turkiye's post-2001 economic…
The emergence and decline of democratic systems worldwide raises fundamental questions about the dynamics of political change. Contrary to the idea of a stable endpoint of liberal democracy, recent backsliding towards less democratic…
We construct a data-driven model of flows in graphs that captures the essential elements of the movement of workers between jobs in the companies (firms) of entire economic systems such as countries. The model is based on the observation…
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…
Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups of interacting agents at the microscopic level. In this paper…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
It has been shown that the long term evolution of the Gross Product of the World after World War II can be well portrayed by the exponential function with the crossover at the year 1973, cinsiding with the Oil Crisis onset. For the the…
We estimate capital and labor income Pareto exponents across 475 country-year observations that span 52 countries over half a century (1967-2018). We document two stylized facts: (i) capital income is more unequally distributed than labor…
A standard growth model is modified in a straightforward way to incorporate what Keynes (1936) suggests in the "essence" of his general theory. The theoretical essence is the idea that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in…
Statistical systems are conceived from the standpoint of statistical mechanics, as made of a (generally large) number of identical units and exhibiting a (generally large) number of different configurations (microstates), among which only…
We propose a non-linear state-space model to examine the relationship between CO$_2$ emissions, energy sources, and macroeconomic activity, using data from 1971 to 2019. CO$_2$ emissions are modeled as a weighted sum of fossil fuel use,…