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It is empirically established that order flow in the financial markets is positively auto-correlated and can serve as an example of a social system with long-range memory. Nevertheless, widely used long-range memory estimators give varying…

We consider spatially extended conductance based neuronal models with noise described by a stochastic reaction diffusion equation with additive noise coupled to a control variable with multiplicative noise but no diffusion. We only assume a…

We consider stochastic resonance for a diffusion with drift given by a potential, which has two metastable states and two pathways between them. Depending on the direction of the forcing, the height of the two barriers, one for each path,…

We present two approaches for linear prediction of long-memory time series. The first approach consists in truncating the Wiener-Kolmogorov predictor by restricting the observations to the last $k$ terms, which are the only available values…

Identifying and quantifying memory are often critical steps in developing a mechanistic understanding of stochastic processes. These are particularly challenging and necessary when exploring processes that exhibit long-range correlations.…

In this paper the nonparametric quantile regression model is considered in a location-scale context. The asymptotic properties of the empirical independence process based on covariates and estimated residuals are investigated. In particular…

The origin of the long-range memory in the non-equilibrium systems is still an open problem as the phenomenon can be reproduced using models based on Markov processes. In these cases a notion of spurious memory is introduced. A good example…

Long memory and volatility clustering are two stylized facts frequently related to financial markets. Traditionally, these phenomena have been studied based on conditionally heteroscedastic models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH, inter…

This paper studies the distributed adaptiveestimation problems for stochastic large regression modelswith an infinite number of parameters. By constructing a re-cursive local cost function, we propose a novel distributedrecursive least…

We analyze the finite sample regret of a decreasing step size stochastic gradient algorithm. We assume correlated noise and use a perturbed Lyapunov function as a systematic approach for the analysis. Finally we analyze the escape time of…

We analyze gradient descent with randomly weighted data points in a linear regression model, under a generic weighting distribution. This includes various forms of stochastic gradient descent, importance sampling, but also extends to…

One of the fundamental assumptions in stochastic control of continuous time processes is that the dynamics of the underlying (diffusion) process is known. This is, however, usually obviously not fulfilled in practice. On the other hand,…

Various methods using machine and deep learning have been proposed to tackle different tasks in predictive process monitoring, forecasting for an ongoing case e.g. the most likely next event or suffix, its remaining time, or an…

The paper deals with the nonparametric estimation problem at a given fixed point for an autoregressive model with unknown distributed noise. Kernel estimate modifications are proposed. Asymptotic minimax and efficiency properties for…

This paper introduces and analyzes a framework that accommodates general heterogeneity in regression modeling. It demonstrates that regression models with fixed or time-varying parameters can be estimated using the OLS and time-varying OLS…

We study exit times from a set for a family of multivariate autoregressive processes with normally distributed noise. By using the large deviation principle, and other methods, we show that the asymptotic behavior of the exit time depends…

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector…

An extension and generalization of a recently presented approach for the analysis of Langevin-type stochastic processes in the presence of strong measurement noise is presented. For a stochastic process in N dimensions which is superimposed…

In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

We study goodness-of-fit testing for non-causal autoregressive time series with non-Gaussian stable noise. To model time series exhibiting sharp spikes or occasional bursts of outlying observations, the exponent of the non-Gaussian stable…