Related papers: Exact prediction of S&P 500 returns
The internet has changed the way we live, work and take decisions. As it is the major modern resource for research, detailed data on internet usage exhibits vast amounts of behavioral information. This paper aims to answer the question…
We analyze the stock prices of the S&P market from 1987 until 2012 with the covariance matrix of the firm returns determined in time windows of several years. The eigenvector belonging to the leading eigenvalue (market) exhibits in its long…
Analyzing market states of the S&P 500 components on a time horizon January 3, 2006 to August 10, 2023, we found the appearance of a new market state not previously seen and we shall discuss its possible implications as an isolated state or…
We perform return interval analysis of 1-min {\em{realized volatility}} defined by the sum of absolute high-frequency intraday returns for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and 22 constituent stocks of SSEC. The scaling…
The analysis of market correlations is crucial for optimal portfolio selection of correlated assets, but their memory effects have often been neglected. In this work, we analyse the mean market correlation of the S&P500 which corresponds to…
Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction costs. Standard predict-then-optimize methods first forecast returns and then solve for weights,…
We study the distribution of fluctuations over a time scale $\Delta t$ (i.e., the returns) of the S&P 500 index by analyzing three distinct databases. Database (i) contains approximately 1 million records sampled at 1 min intervals for the…
A growing empirical literature suggests that equity-premium predictability is state dependent, with much of the forecasting power concentrated around recessionary periods (Henkel et al., 2011; Dangl and Halling, 2012; Devpura et al., 2018).…
A quantitative understanding of cities' demographic dynamics is becoming a potentially useful tool for planning sustainable growth. The concomitant theory should reveal details of the cities' past and also of its interaction with nearby…
Behavioral theories posit that investor sentiment exhibits predictive power for stock returns, whereas there is little study have investigated the relationship between the time horizon of the predictive effect of investor sentiment and the…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
This project aims to predict short-term and long-term upward trends in the S&P 500 index using machine learning models and feature engineering based on the "101 Formulaic Alphas" methodology. The study employed multiple models, including…
There is a large literature on earnings and income volatility in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics. One strand of that literature has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over…
We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over 11…
Applying a network analysis to stock return correlations, we study the dynamical properties of the network and how they correlate with the market return, finding meaningful variables that partially capture the complex dynamical processes of…
In this paper, the ARMA(0,6)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(2,6)-eGARCH(1,1) models are constructed by applying ARMA and GARCH models to daily data of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 indices from 2018 to 2021, and the forecasts for the next 7 steps and the…
Trade prices of about 1000 New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks are studied at one-minute time resolution over the continuous five year period 2018--2022. For each stock, in dollar-volume-weighted transaction time, the discrepancy from a…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…
By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…
Several authors have noticed the signature of log-periodic oscillations prior to large stock market crashes [cond-mat/9509033, cond-mat/9510036, Vandewalle et al 1998]. Unfortunately good fits of the corresponding equation to stock market…