Related papers: A Bayesian Framework for Opinion Updates

In the process of enacting or introducing a new policy, policymakers frequently consider the population's responses. These considerations are critical for effective governance. There are numerous methods to gauge the ground sentiment from a…

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of complex multidimensional issues. We consider agents which can classify issues into for or against. The agents arrive at the opinions about each…

Starting with the neo-Bayesian revival of the 1950s, many statisticians argued that it was inappropriate to use Bayesian methods, and in particular subjective Bayesian methods in governmental and public policy settings because of their…

Examining the mechanisms underlying the formation and evolution of opinions within real-world social systems, which consist of numerous individuals, can provide valuable insights for effective social functioning and informed business…

We present a domain-theoretic framework for probabilistic programming that provides a constructive definition of conditional probability and addresses computability challenges previously identified in the literature. We introduce a novel…

Inspired by e-participation systems, in this paper we propose a new model to represent human debates and methods to obtain collective conclusions from them. This model overcomes drawbacks of existing approaches by allowing users to…

Pimentel et al. (2020) recently analysed probing from an information-theoretic perspective. They argue that probing should be seen as approximating a mutual information. This led to the rather unintuitive conclusion that representations…

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

The massive amount of text data on the web has facilitated research on the quantitative analysis of public opinion, which could not be visualized earlier. In this paper, we propose a new opinion dynamics theory. This theory that is intended…

This paper examines the interplay of opinion exchange dynamics and communication network formation. An opinion formation procedure is introduced which is based on an abstract representation of opinions as $k$--dimensional bit--strings.…

A new agent-based, bounded-confidence model for discrete one-dimensional opinion dynamics is presented. The agents interact if their opinions do not differ more than a tolerance parameter. In pairwise interactions, one of the pair, randomly…

Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n=861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective…

In this paper we propose and investigate a multi-dimensional opinion dynamics model where people are characterised by both opinions and importance weights across these opinions. Opinion changes occur through binary interactions, with a…

Being able to correctly aggregate the beliefs of many people into a single belief is a problem fundamental to many important social, economic and political processes such as policy making, market pricing and voting. Although there exist…

We introduce a utility-driven bounded-confidence model of opinion dynamics in which opinions associated with higher utility exert stronger social influence. In the regime where all agents belong to a single opinion cluster, we derive a…

As more than 70$\%$ of reviews in the existing opinion summary data set are positive, current opinion summarization approaches are reluctant to generate negative summaries given the input of negative texts. To address such sentiment bias, a…

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…

We propose a modified Vicsek-like model to study influence dynamics and opinion formation in social networks. We work on the premise that opinions of members of a group may be considered to be analogous to the direction of motion of a…

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people's susceptibility to persuasion -- the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting…