Related papers: Fluctuations and oscillations in a simple epidemic…
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the…
Frequency dependent selection and demographic fluctuations play important roles in evolutionary and ecological processes. Under frequency dependent selection, the average fitness of the population may increase or decrease based on…
In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
This paper deals with a new epidemiological model of SIRS with stochastic perturbations. The primary objective is to establish the existence of a unique non-negative nonlocal solution. Using the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_0$…
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…
The spread of an infectious disease is known to change people's behavior, which in turn affects the spread of disease. Adaptive network models that account for both epidemic and behavior change have found oscillations, but in an extremely…
We study ODE models of epidemic spreading with a preventive behavioral response that is triggered by awareness of the infection. Previous studies of such models have mostly focused on the impact of the response on the initial growth of an…
The growth of complex populations, such as microbial communities, forests, and cities, occurs over vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Although research in different fields has developed detailed, system-specific models to…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
In this letter we present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split…
Recent work in modeling the coupling between disease dynamics and dynamic social network geometry has led to the examination of how human interactions force a rewiring of connections in a population. Rewiring of the network may be…
Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
Using Monte Carlo simulations we study a lattice model of a prey-predator system. We show that in the three-dimensional model populations of preys and predators exhibit coherent periodic oscillations but such a behaviour is absent in…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
Fluctuations and noise may alter the behavior of dynamical systems considerably. For example, oscillations may be sustained by demographic fluctuations in biological systems where a stable fixed point is found in the absence of noise. We…
Human behavioral responses play an important role in the impact of disease outbreaks and yet they are often overlooked in epidemiological models. Understanding to what extent behavioral changes determine the outcome of spreading epidemics…
Among various possible causes of autoimmune disease, an important role is played by infections that can result in a breakdown of immune tolerance, primarily through the mechanism of "molecular mimicry". In this paper we propose and analyse…