Related papers: Entropy of Hidden Markov Processes via Cycle Expan…
We consider the task of learning mappings from sequential data to real-valued responses. We present and evaluate an approach to learning a type of hidden Markov model (HMM) for regression. The learning process involves inferring the…
The transfer entropy is a well-established measure of information flow, which quantifies directed influence between two stochastic time series and has been shown to be useful in a variety fields of science. Here we introduce the transfer…
We propose a compression-based version of the empirical entropy of a finite string over a finite alphabet. Whereas previously one considers the naked entropy of (possibly higher order) Markov processes, we consider the sum of the…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…
New sampling algorithms based on simulating continuous-time stochastic processes called piece-wise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) have shown considerable promise. However, these methods can struggle to sample from multi-modal or…
We construct multiperiodic processes -- a simple example of stationary ergodic (but not mixing) processes over natural numbers that enjoy the vanishing entropy rate under a mild condition. Multiperiodic processes are supported on randomly…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
The master equation and, more generally, Markov processes are routinely used as models for stochastic processes. They are often justified on the basis of randomization and coarse-graining assumptions. Here instead, we derive n-th order…
Suppose that we are given a time series where consecutive samples are believed to come from a probabilistic source, that the source changes from time to time and that the total number of sources is fixed. Our objective is to estimate the…
Entropy production (EP) is known as a fundamental quantity for measuring the irreversibility of processes in thermal equilibrium and states far from equilibrium. In stochastic thermodynamics, the EP becomes more visible in terms of the…
Entropy and free-energy estimation are key in thermodynamic characterization of simulated systems ranging from spin models through polymers, colloids, protein structure, and drug-design. Current techniques suffer from being model specific,…
There is a random variable (X) with a determined outcome (i.e., X = x0), p(x0) = 1. Consider x0 to have a discrete uniform distribution over the integer interval [1, s], where the size of the sample space (s) = 1, in the initial state, such…
We investigate the problem of synthesizing optimal control policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with both qualitative and quantitative objectives. Specifically, our goal is to achieve a given linear temporal logic (LTL) task with…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
In this note we provide detailed derivations of two versions of small-variance asymptotics for hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models and the HDP hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM, a.k.a. the infinite HMM). We include derivations…
A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…
Monte Carlo simulations of systems of particles such as hard spheres or soft spheres with singular kernels can display around a phase transition prohibitively long convergence times when using traditional Hasting-Metropolis reversible…
The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…
We investigate the problem of minimizing the entropy production for a physical process that can be described in terms of a Markov jump dynamics. We show that, without any further constraints, a given time-evolution may be realized at…
The process algebra HYPE was recently proposed as a fine-grained modelling approach for capturing the behaviour of hybrid systems. In the original proposal, each flow or influence affecting a variable is modelled separately and the overall…