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The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-02 Luigi Catello , Ludovica Ruggiero , Lucia Schiavone , Mario Valentino

We consider Hidden Markov Chains obtained by passing a Markov Chain with rare transitions through a noisy memoryless channel. We obtain asymptotic estimates for the entropy of the resulting Hidden Markov Chain as the transition rate is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-12-10 Yuval Peres , Anthony Quas

The principle of entropy increase is not only the basis of statistical mechanics, but also closely related to the irreversibility of time, the origin of life, chaos and turbulence. In this paper, we first discuss the dynamic system…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-11 Zou Dan Dan

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-01 Michalis K. Titsias , Christopher Yau , Christopher C. Holmes

Estimating the dissipation, or the entropy production rate (EPR), can provide insights into the underlying mechanisms of nonequilibrium driven processes. Experimentally, however, only partial information can be accessed, and the ability to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-12-29 Uri Kapustin , Aishani Ghosal , Gili Bisker

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the usual slow methods like EM or Gibbs sampling. We provide a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-03-29 Dean P. Foster , Jordan Rodu , Lyle H. Ungar

Typically, the entropy of an isolated system in equilibrium is calculated by counting the number of accessible microstates, or in more general cases by using the Gibbs formula. In irreversible processes entropy spontaneously increases and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-16 Taha A Malik , Rafael Lopez-Mobilia

Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-19 Pierre E. Jacob

There are three ways to conceptualize entropy: entropy as an extensive thermodynamic quantity of physical systems (Clausius, Boltzmann, Gibbs), entropy as a measure for information production of ergodic sources (Shannon), and entropy as a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-11-05 Stefan Thurner , Bernat Corominas-Murtra , Rudolf Hanel

Entropy rate of sequential data-streams naturally quantifies the complexity of the generative process. Thus entropy rate fluctuations could be used as a tool to recognize dynamical perturbations in signal sources, and could potentially be…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-03-24 Ishanu Chattopadhyay , Hod Lipson

The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Mikołaj Słupiński , Piotr Lipiński

In the paper, we introduce the maximum entropy estimator based on 2-dimensional empirical distribution of the observation sequence of hidden Markov model , when the sample size is big: in that case computing the maximum likelihood estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-16 Shulan Hu , Xinyu Wang , Liming Wu

A hidden Markov process is a well known concept in information theory and is used for a vast range of applications such as speech recognition and error correction. We bridge between two disciplines, experimental physics and advanced…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2015-06-24 Ido Kanter , Aviad Frydman , Asaf Ater

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-03 Lorenzo Finesso , Angela Grassi , Peter Spreij

The evolution of entanglement entropy in quantum circuits composed of Haar-random gates and projective measurements shows versatile behavior, with connections to phase transitions and complexity theory. We reformulate the problem in terms…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2020-04-16 Oles Shtanko , Yaroslav A. Kharkov , Luis Pedro García-Pintos , Alexey V. Gorshkov

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagit Shatkay

We study the multiple definitions of the entropy production for discrete-time Markov processes in single systems and composite systems. These definitions have been studied in single systems, but less so in composite systems. With a clear…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-30 Masanao Igarashi

In this note, we show that small complex perturbations of positive matrices are contractions, with respect to a complex version of the Hilbert metric, on the standard complex simplex. We show that this metric can be used to obtain estimates…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2009-05-18 Guangyue Han , Brian Marcus , Yuval Peres

Entropy functionals are computed for non-stationary distributions of particles of Lorentz gas and hard disks. The distributions consisting of beams of particles are found to have the largest amount of entropy and entropy increase. The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Maurice Courbage , Seyed Majid Saberi Fathi

Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) are a class of continuous-time Markov processes that were recently used to develop a new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. However, the implementation of the processes is…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-08 Charly Andral , Kengo Kamatani