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We propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Bohan Chen , Jose Blanchet , Chang-Han Rhee , Bert Zwart

We study statistical and computational limits of clustering when the means of the centres are sparse and their dimension is possibly much larger than the sample size. Our theoretical analysis focuses on the model $X_i = z_i \theta +…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-23 Matthias Löffler , Alexander S. Wein , Afonso S. Bandeira

Clustered data is ubiquitous in a variety of scientific fields. In this paper, we propose a flexible and interpretable modeling approach, called grouped heterogenous mixture modeling, for clustered data, which models cluster-wise…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Shonosuke Sugasawa

We introduce a new method for performing clustering with the aim of fitting clusters with different scatters and weights. It is designed by allowing to handle a proportion $\alpha$ of contaminating data to guarantee the robustness of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Luis A. García-Escudero , Alfonso Gordaliza , Carlos Matrán , Agustin Mayo-Iscar

Robustly determining the optimal number of clusters in a data set is an essential factor in a wide range of applications. Cluster enumeration becomes challenging when the true underlying structure in the observed data is corrupted by…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-06 Christian A. Schroth , Michael Muma

The statistical behavior of the size (or mass) of the largest cluster in subcritical percolation on a finite lattice of size $N$ is investigated (below the upper critical dimension, presumably $d_c=6$). It is argued that as $N \to \infty$…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Martin Z. Bazant

In complex systems, events occur at irregular intervals that inherently encode the underlying dynamics of the system. Analyzing the temporal clustering of these events reveals critical insights into the non-random patterns and the temporal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-20 Ambedkar Sanket Sukdeo , K. Shri Vignesh , Sachin S. Gunthe , T Narayan Rao , Amit Kumar Patra , R. I. Sujith

An approach for understanding the behavior of multiplicity distributions in restricted phase-space intervals derived on the basis of global observables is proposed. We obtain a unifying connection between local multiparticle clusters and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2008-11-26 S. V. Chekanov , V. I. Kuvshinov

The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm is a very powerful and versatile iterative method to estimate the probability of rare events, based on an interacting particle systems. In an other article, in a so-called idealized setting, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-21 Charles-Edouard Bréhier , Ludovic Goudenège , Loic Tudela

The present report extends the method of fixed point clustering (Phys.Rev. E 61,5, R4691-4693, 2000) by introducing an indirect criterion for the number of clusters. The derived probability function allows an objective distinction of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Hutt , F. Kruggel

Dirichlet process mixtures are flexible non-parametric models, particularly suited to density estimation and probabilistic clustering. In this work we study the posterior distribution induced by Dirichlet process mixtures as the sample size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Filippo Ascolani , Antonio Lijoi , Giovanni Rebaudo , Giacomo Zanella

A mixture of multivariate contaminated normal distributions is developed for model-based clustering. In addition to the parameters of the classical normal mixture, our contaminated mixture has, for each cluster, a parameter controlling the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-20 Antonio Punzo , Paul D. McNicholas

Nonuniform subsampling methods are effective to reduce computational burden and maintain estimation efficiency for massive data. Existing methods mostly focus on subsampling with replacement due to its high computational efficiency. If the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Jun Yu , HaiYing Wang , Mingyao Ai , Huiming Zhang

Properties of cumulant- and combinant ratios are studied for multihadron final states composed of Poisson distributed clusters. The application of these quantities to ``detect'' clusters is discussed. For the scaling laws which hold in…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2016-09-01 S. Hegyi

Mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used in machine learning to represent complex data distributions. A key challenge, especially in high-dimensional settings, is to determine the mixture order and estimate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Srećko Đurašinović , Jean-Bernard Lasserre , Victor Magron

In this paper, we address an issue of finding explainable clusters of class-uniform data in labelled datasets. The issue falls into the domain of interpretable supervised clustering. Unlike traditional clustering, supervised clustering aims…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Natallia Kokash , Leonid Makhnist

Periodic orbits in chaotic systems form clusters, whose elements traverse approximately the same points of the phase space. The distribution of cluster sizes depends on the length n of orbits and the parameter p which controls closeness of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-15 Boris Gutkin , Vladimir Al. Osipov

Estimands can help clarify the interpretation of treatment effects and ensure that estimators are aligned to the study's objectives. Cluster randomised trials require additional attributes to be defined within the estimand compared to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Brennan C Kahan , Bryan Blette , Michael Harhay , Scott Halpern , Vipul Jairath , Andrew Copas , Fan Li

Clustering provides a common means of identifying structure in complex data, and there is renewed interest in clustering as a tool for the analysis of large data sets in many fields. A natural question is how many clusters are appropriate…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Susanne Still , William Bialek

Suppose that $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are a stream of independent, identically distributed Poisson random variables with mean $\mu$. This work presents a new estimate $\mu_k$ for $\mu$ with the property that the distribution of the relative error…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-01 Mark Huber