Related papers: Competing Risks Analysis on Times to Commit Crimes

A competitive learning model was introduced in Ref. 1 (A. Mehta and J. M. Luck, Phys. Rev. E 60, 5, 1999), in which the learning is outcome-related. Every individual chooses between a pair of existing strategies or types, guided by a…

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value…

Risk behavior can have substantial consequences for health, well-being, and functioning. Previous studies have shown an association between real-world risk behavior and risk behavior on experimental tasks, such as the Columbia Card Task,…

In competing risks models, cumulative incidence functions are commonly compared to infer differences between groups. Many existing inference methods, however, struggle when these functions cross during the time frame of interest. To address…

In this paper, we compare three different model-based risk measures by evaluating their stengths and weaknesses qualitatively and testing them quantitatively on a set of real longitudinal and intersection scenarios. We start with the…

Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate police across a city in order to best prevent crime. Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated.…

The problem of multi-armed bandits (MAB) asks to make sequential decisions while balancing between exploitation and exploration, and have been successfully applied to a wide range of practical scenarios. Various algorithms have been…

Accurate time-to-event prediction is integral to decision-making, informing medical guidelines, hiring decisions, and resource allocation. Survival analysis, the quantitative framework used to model time-to-event data, accounts for patients…

The success of a security attack crucially depends on time: the more time available to the attacker, the higher the probability of a successful attack. Formalisms such as Reliability block diagrams, Reliability graphs and Attack…

A new class of integer-valued autoregressive models with dynamic survival probability is proposed. The peculiarity of this class of models lies on the specification of the survival probability through a stochastic recurrence equation. The…

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and…

We consider the problem of estimating the incidence of residential burglaries that occur over a well-defined period of time within the 10 most populous cities in North Carolina. Our analysis typifies some of the general issues that arise in…

A nonlinear time-delay model is proposed to describe the interaction dynamics between criminal and non-criminal populations, combining social influence mechanisms, saturation effects represented by a Holling type II functional response, and…

In this paper, we analyse inspection games with an evolutionary perspective. In our evolutionary inspection game with a large population, each individual is not a rational payoff maximiser, but periodically updates his strategy if he…

We study the tradeoff between fundamental risk and time. A time-constrained agent has to solve a problem. She dynamically allocates effort between implementing a risky initial idea and exploring alternatives. Discovering an alternative…

Under adversarial attacks, time series regression and classification are vulnerable. Adversarial defense, on the other hand, can make the models more resilient. It is important to evaluate how vulnerable different time series models are to…

From a statistical point of view, crime data present certain peculiarities that have led to a growing interest in their analysis. In particular, a characteristic that some property crimes frequently present is the existence of uncertainty…

Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…

A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…

Containing the spreading of crime in urban societies remains a major challenge. Empirical evidence suggests that, left unchecked, crimes may be recurrent and proliferate. On the other hand, eradicating a culture of crime may be difficult,…