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Many economic models feature monotone Markov dynamics on state spaces that may be noncompact. Establishing existence, uniqueness, and stability of stationary distributions in such settings has required a patchwork of sufficient conditions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Takashi Kamihigashi , John Stachurski

Consider a compact metric space $S$ and a pair $(j,k)$ with $k \ge 2$ and $1 \le j \le k$. For any probability distribution $\theta \in P(S)$, define a Markov chain on $S$ by: from state $s$, take $k$ i.i.d. ($\theta$) samples, and jump to…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-03 David J. Aldous , Shi Feng

In any Markov chain with finite state space the distribution of transition records always belongs to the exponential family. This observation is used to prove a fluctuation theorem, and to show that the dynamical entropy of a stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jan Naudts , Erik Van der Straeten

Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-20 Tugrul Dayar , Holger Hermanns , David Spieler , Verena Wolf

Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-27 Daniel Rudolf , Nikolaus Schweizer

We give conditions under which a Markov chain constructed via parallel or simulated tempering is guaranteed to be rapidly mixing, which are applicable to a wide range of multimodal distributions arising in Bayesian statistical inference and…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-15 Dawn B. Woodard , Scott C. Schmidler , Mark Huber

We consider the time dependent probability distribution of a coarse grained observable Y whose evolution is governed by a discrete time map. If the map is mixing, the time dependent one-step transition probabilities converge in the long…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Brian R. La Cour , William C. Schieve

This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Somenath Biswas

Ge and Stefankovic have recently introduced a novel two-variable graph polynomial. When specialised to a bipartite graphs G and evaluated at the point (1/2,1) this polynomial gives the number of independent sets in the graph. Inspired by…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-18 Leslie Ann Goldberg , Mark Jerrum

We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Balazs Gerencser , Miklos Rasonyi

In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-08 Florian Bouguet , Bertrand Cloez

Many applications in network analysis require algorithms to sample uniformly at random from the set of all graphs with a prescribed degree sequence. We present a Markov chain based approach which converges to the uniform distribution of all…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2010-03-05 Annabell Berger , Matthias Müller-Hannemann

Perfect sampling is a technique that uses coupling arguments to provide a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain in a finite time without ever computing the distribution. This technique is very efficient if all the events…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Ana Bušić , Bruno Gaujal , Furcy Pin

We develop two models for Bayesian estimation and selection in high-order, discrete-state Markov chains. Both are based on the mixture transition distribution, which constructs a transition probability tensor with additive mixing of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Matthew Heiner , Athanasios Kottas

Markov chain models are used in various fields, such behavioral sciences or econometrics. Although the goodness of fit of the model is usually assessed by large sample approximation, it is desirable to use conditional tests if the sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-11 Akimichi Takemura , Hisayuki Hara

We improve upon all known lower bounds on the critical fugacity and critical density of the hard sphere model in dimensions two and higher. As the dimension tends to infinity our improvements are by factors of $2$ and $1.7$, respectively.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-22 Tyler Helmuth , Will Perkins , Samantha Petti

To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Federica Milinanni , Pierre Nyquist

In this paper, we study dependence coefficients for copula-based Markov chains. We provide new tools to check the convergence rates of mixing coefficients of copula-based Markov chains. We study Markov chains generated by the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-01 Martial Longla

A new approach is developed for evaluating the convergence rate for nonlinear Markov chains (MC) based on the recently developed spectral radius technique of markovian coupling for linear MC and the idea of small nonlinear perturbations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Alexander Shchegolev , Alexander Veretennikov

We investigate nonequilibrium steady-state dynamics in both continuous- and discrete-state stochastic processes. Our analysis focuses on planar diffusion dynamics and their coarse-grained approximations by discrete-state Markov chains.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-12 Ramón Nartallo-Kaluarachchi , Renaud Lambiotte , Alain Goriely