Related papers: Smile dynamics -- a theory of the implied leverage…
A microeconomic approach is proposed to derive the fluctuations of risky asset price, where the market participants are modeled as prospect trading agents. As asset price is generated by the temporary equilibrium between demand and supply,…
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…
We consider the at-the-money strike derivative of implied volatility as the maturity tends to zero. Our main results quantify the behavior of the slope for infinite activity exponential L\'evy models including a Brownian component. As…
In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that…
There is a well developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying…
Our derivation of the distribution function for future returns is based on the risk neutral approach which gives a functional dependence for the European call (put) option price, C(K), given the strike price, K, and the distribution…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the…
We present a dynamic hedging scheme for S&P 500 options, where rebalancing decisions are enhanced by integrating information about the implied volatility surface dynamics. The optimal hedging strategy is obtained through a deep policy…
We consider risk-neutral returns and show how their tail asymptotics translate directly to asymptotics of the implied volatility smile, thereby sharpening Roger Lee's celebrated moment formula. The theory of regular variation provides the…
We investigate the dynamics of peeling of an adhesive tape subjected to a constant pull speed. We derive the equations of motion for the angular speed of the roller tape, the peel angle and the pull force used in earlier investigations…
In the Black-Scholes context we consider the probability distribution function (PDF) of financial returns implied by volatility smile and we study the relation between the decay of its tails and the fitting parameters of the smile. We show…
We model leverage as stochastic but independent of return shocks and of volatility and perform likelihood-based inference via the recently developed iterated filtering algorithm using S&P500 data, contributing new evidence to the still slim…
We provide explicit conditions on the distribution of risk-neutral log-returns which yield sharp asymptotic estimates on the implied volatility smile. We allow for a variety of asymptotic regimes, including both small maturity (with…
We propose a model with heterogeneous interacting traders which can explain some of the stylized facts of stock market returns. In the model synchronization effects, which generate large fluctuations in returns, can arise either from an…
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston stochastic volatility process. In order to capture the Samuelson effect displayed by commodity futures contracts, we add expiry-dependent exponential damping…
A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{volatility drag}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In…
This work examines a stochastic volatility model with double-exponential jumps in the context of option pricing. The model has been considered in previous research articles, but no thorough analysis has been conducted to study its quality…
When trading incurs proportional costs, leverage can scale an asset's return only up to a maximum multiple, which is sensitive to its volatility and liquidity. In a model with one safe and one risky asset, with constant investment…
In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE)…