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We study the generation of prediction intervals in regression for uncertainty quantification. This task can be formalized as an empirical constrained optimization problem that minimizes the average interval width while maintaining the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Haoxian Chen , Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Huajie Qian , Haofeng Zhang

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We introduce a sharpness functional for probabilistic models that quantifies sharpness as an intrinsic property of the probability distribution. The measure is derived based on a rank-based concentration principle that tracks upward…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Pekka Syrjänen

In many areas of applied statistics and machine learning, generating an arbitrary number of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from a given distribution is a key task. When the distribution is known only through…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Ulysse Marteau-Ferey , Francis Bach , Alessandro Rudi

In recent years the ultrahigh dimensional linear regression problem has attracted enormous attentions from the research community. Under the sparsity assumption most of the published work is devoted to the selection and estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-01 Randy C. S. Lai , Jan Hannig , Thomas C. M. Lee

A class of discrete probability distributions contains distributions with limited support, i.e. possible argument values are limited to a set of numbers (typically consecutive). Examples of such data are results from subjective experiments…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-11 Lucjan Janowski , Bogdan Ćmiel , Krzysztof Rusek , Jakub Nawała , Zhi Li

There is a difficulty in finding an estimate of variance of the profile likelihood estimator in the joint model of longitudinal and survival data. We solve the difficulty by introducing the ``statistical generalized derivative''. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Yuichi Hirose , Ivy Liu

In this paper, we introduce a new distribution generated by Lindley random variable which offers a more flexible model for modelling lifetime data. Various statistical properties like distribution function, survival function, moments,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-25 Deepesh Bhati , Mohd. Aamir Malik

In this article we recover the distribution function (and possible density) of an arbitrary random variable that is subject to an additive measurement error. This problem is also known as deconvolution and has a long tradition in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Henrik Kaiser

High dimensional statistical problems arise from diverse fields of scientific research and technological development. Variable selection plays a pivotal role in contemporary statistical learning and scientific discoveries. The traditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-10-08 Jianqing Fan , Jinchi Lv

Latent space models are powerful statistical tools for modeling and understanding network data. While the importance of accounting for uncertainty in network analysis has been well recognized, the current literature predominantly focuses on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-15 Jinming Li , Shihao Wu , Chengyu Cui , Gongjun Xu , Ji Zhu

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Traditional regression and prediction tasks often only provide deterministic point estimates. To estimate the distribution or uncertainty of the response variable, traditional methods either assume that the posterior distribution of samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Daojun Liang , Haixia Zhang , Dongfeng Yuan

By combining a bound on the absolute value of the difference of mutual information between two joint probablity distributions with a fixed variational distance, and a bound on the probability of a maximal deviation in variational distance…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-01-29 A. G. Stefani , J. B. Huber , C. Jardin , H. Sticht

This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-22 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki , Jamal F. Husseini , Scott E. Stapleton

Quantiles, expectiles and extremiles can be seen as concepts defined via an optimization problem, where this optimization problem is driven by two important ingredients: the loss function as well as a distributional weight function. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-21 Dieter Debrauwer , Irène Gijbels , Klaus Herrmann

The focus of modern biomedical studies has gradually shifted to explanation and estimation of joint effects of high dimensional predictors on disease risks. Quantifying uncertainty in these estimates may provide valuable insight into…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-09 Zhe Fei , Yi Li

Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Hongling Zhou , Kung-Yee Liang

Geometric quantiles are popular location functionals to build rank-based statistical procedures in multivariate settings. They are obtained through the minimization of a non-smooth convex objective function. As a result, the singularity of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Dimitri Konen , Gilles Stupfler

Traditional neural network regression models provide only point estimates, failing to capture predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) address this limitation by producing output distributions, enabling the construction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki