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This paper is the second in a series of two, and describes the current state of the art in modelling and prediction of chaotic time series. Sampled data from deterministic non-linear systems may look stochastic when analysed with linear…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 Bjoern Lillekjendlie , Dimitris Kugiumtzis , Nils Christophersen

We develop two statistical models for space-time abundance data based on a stochastic underlying continuous individual movement. In contrast to current models for abundance in statistical ecology, our models exploit the explicit connection…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-24 Ricardo Carrizo Vergara , Marc Kéry , Trevor Hefley

We present a novel approach to investigate the long-time stochastic dynamics of multi-dimensional classical systems, in contact with a heat-bath. When the potential energy landscape is rugged, the kinetics displays a decoupling of short and…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2013-05-29 O. Corradini , P. Faccioli , H. Orland

Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-25 George I. Boutselis , Ethan N. Evans , Marcus A. Pereira , Evangelos A. Theodorou

The analysis of noise-induced escape in populations of bistable elements is challenging, because nonlinearity, coupling, and noise all play essential roles. We show that the interplay of these three factors yields three qualitatively…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2026-03-06 Hidemasa Ishii , Hiroshi Kori

We present an explicit unified stochastic model of fluctuations in population size due to random birth, death, density-dependent competition and environmental fluctuations. Stochastic dynamics provide insight into small populations,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-07-31 Alexei J. Drummond , Peter D. Drummond

In this paper, the impact of escaping in couples on the evacuation dynamics has been investigated via experiments and modeling. Two sets of experiments have been implemented, in which pedestrians are asked to escape either in individual or…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-12-17 Ning Guo , Rui Jiang , Mao-Bin Hu , Jian-Xun Ding , Zhong-Jun Ding

The time evolution of many physical, chemical, and biological systems can be modelled by stochastic transitions between the minima of the potential energy surface describing the system of interest. We show that in cases where there are two…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-11 S. P. Fitzgerald , A. Bailey Hass , G. Díaz Leines , A. J. Archer

A stochastic mode reduction strategy is applied to multiscale models with a deterministic energy-conserving fast sub-system. Specifically, we consider situations where the slow variables are driven stochastically and interact with the fast…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-14 Ankita Jain , Ilya Timofeyev , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Escape from a potential well can occur in different physical systems, such as capsize of ships, resonance transitions in celestial mechanics, and dynamic snap-through of arches and shells, as well as molecular reconfigurations in chemical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-11-05 Jun Zhong , Shane D. Ross

Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-19 Abhishek Mallela , Alan Hastings

Stochastic particle--based models are useful tools for describing the collective movement of large crowds of pedestrians in crowded confined environments. Using descriptions based on the simple exclusion process, two populations of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-26 Emilio N. M. Cirillo , Matteo Colangeli , Adrian Muntean , T. K. Thoa Thieu

Experiments in predator-prey systems show the emergence of long-term cycles. Deterministic model typically fails in capturing these behaviors, which emerge from the microscopic interplay of individual based dynamics and stochastic effects.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-03 Giacomo Albi , Roberto Chignola , Federica Ferrarese

We utilize the externally forced linearized Navier-Stokes equations to study the receptivity of pre-transitional boundary layers to persistent sources of stochastic excitation. Stochastic forcing is used to model the effect of free-stream…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-09-09 Wei Ran , Armin Zare , M. J. Philipp Hack , Mihailo R. Jovanović

Slowing down phenomena occur in both deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems at the vicinity of phase transitions or bifurcations. An example is found in systems exhibiting a saddle-node bifurcation, which undergo a dramatic time…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-02-25 J. Tomás Lázaro , Tomás Alarcón , Carlos Peña , Josep Sardanyés

Nonlinear and non-stationary processes are prevalent in various natural and physical phenomena, where system dynamics can change qualitatively due to bifurcation phenomena. Traditional machine learning methods have advanced our ability to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Keita Tokuda , Yuichi Katori

The diffusion strategy for distributed learning from streaming data employs local stochastic gradient updates along with exchange of iterates over neighborhoods. In Part I [2] of this work we established that agents cluster around a network…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2019-07-04 Stefan Vlaski , Ali H. Sayed

This is the transcript of a talk given at the 1992 Complex Systems Summer School. The theory of large fluctuations of stochastically perturbed continuous-time dynamical systems is reviewed, and the large fluctuations of two stochastic…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 Robert S. Maier

Learning stochastic models of dynamical systems from observed data is of interest in many scientific fields. Here, we propose a new method for this task within the family of dynamical variational autoencoders. The proposed double projection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Viktor Sip , Martin Breyton , Spase Petkoski , Viktor Jirsa

We analyse the effect of intrinsic fluctuations on the properties of bistable stochastic systems with time scale separation operating under1 quasi-steady state conditions. We first formulate a stochastic generalisation of the quasi-steady…

Biological Physics · Physics 2016-03-02 Roberto de la Cruz , Pilar Guerrero , Fabian Spill , Tomás Alarcón