Related papers: A housing-demographic multi-layered nonlinear mode…
Housing markets play a crucial role in economies and the collapse of a real-estate bubble usually destabilizes the financial system and causes economic recessions. We investigate the systemic risk and spatiotemporal dynamics of the US…
We represent the functioning of the housing market and study the relation between income segregation, income inequality and house prices by introducing a spatial Agent-Based Model (ABM). Differently from traditional models in urban…
Growing concerns about housing affordability have prompted the adoption of rent control policies and renewed debates over their effectiveness. This paper provides the first empirical evaluation of the 2024 rent control policy implemented in…
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make…
Understanding how housing prices respond to spatial accessibility, structural attributes, and typological distinctions is central to contemporary urban research and policy. In cities marked by affordability stress and market segmentation,…
Urban housing markets, along with markets of other assets, universally exhibit periods of strong price increases followed by sharp corrections. The mechanisms generating such non-linearities are not yet well understood. We develop an…
This study simulates the evolution of artificial economies in order to understand the tax relevance of administrative boundaries in the quality of life of its citizens. The modeling involves the construction of a computational algorithm,…
I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product…
The Ministry of Social Development in Mexico is in charge of creating and assigning social programmes targeting specific needs in the population for the improvement of quality of life. To better target the social programmes, the Ministry is…
The real estate market is exposed to many fluctuations in prices because of existing correlations with many variables, some of which cannot be controlled or might even be unknown. Housing prices can increase rapidly (or in some cases, also…
We propose a sequential monitoring scheme to find structural breaks in real estate markets. The changes in the real estate prices are modeled by a combination of linear and autoregressive terms. The monitoring scheme is based on a detector…
We analyze how equilibrium housing prices are determined in the process of economic development within an overlapping generations model with perfect housing and rental markets. We characterize the rent growth rate in all equilibria. The…
We develop a stochastic free-boundary model of housing tenure decisions in markets with high mobility risk, such as areas near military installations. Housing prices and rents follow correlated diffusion processes, and households face an…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
This paper describes how a time-varying Markov model was used to forecast housing development at a master-planned community during a transition from high to low growth. Our approach draws on detailed historical data to model the dynamics of…
Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One…
Through the reinterpretation of housing data as candlesticks, we extend Nature Scientific Reports' article by Liang and Unwin [LU22] on stock market indicators for COVID-19 data, and utilize some of the most prominent technical indicators…
We develop a framework to holistically test for and monitor the impact of different types of events affecting a country's housing market, yet originating from housing-external sources. We classify events along three dimensions leading to…
This paper studies the investment decision of the Spanish households using a unique data set, the Spanish Survey of Household Finance (EFF). We propose a theoretical model in which households, given a fixed investment in housing, allocate…
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure…