Related papers: Bayesian Analysis of Value-at-Risk with Product Pa…
Online controlled experiments (A/B tests) are fundamental to data-driven decision-making in the digital economy. However, their real-world application is frequently compromised by two critical shortcomings: the use of statistically flawed…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
Inventory management is a fundamental challenge in supply chain management. The challenge is compounded when the associated products have unpredictable demands. This study proposes an innovative optimization approach combining…
Value-at-risk (VaR), also known as quantile, is a crucial risk measure in finance and other fields. However, optimizing VaR metrics in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is challenging because VaR is non-additive and the traditional dynamic…
Shape modelling (with methods that output shapes) is a new and important task in Bayesian nonparametrics and bioinformatics. In this work, we focus on Bayesian nonparametric methods for capturing shapes by partitioning a space using curves.…
Value-at-Risk is one of the most popular risk management tools in the financial industry. Over the past 20 years several attempts to include VaR in the portfolio selection process have been proposed. However, using VaR as a risk measure in…
Value at Risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a…
It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…
Models for financial risk often assume that underlying asset returns are stationary. However, there is strong evidence that multivariate financial time series entail changes not only in their within-series dependence structure, but also in…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…
This paper is devoted to proposing a new asymmetric risk-sensitive criterion involving different risk attitudes toward varying risk sources. The criterion can only be defined through the initial value of the minimal solutions of quadratic…
We propose a numerical recipe for risk evaluation defined by a backward stochastic differential equation. Using dual representation of the risk measure, we convert the risk valuation to a stochastic control problem where the control is a…
Quality control in industrial processes is increasingly making use of prior scientific knowledge, often encoded in physical models that require numerical approximation. Statistical prediction, and subsequent optimization, is key to ensuring…
This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal…
The Pareto model is very popular in risk management, since simple analytical formulas can be derived for financial downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) or reinsurance premiums and related quantities (Large Claim Index,…
This paper is concerned with the process of risk allocation for a generic multivariate model when the risk measure is chosen as the Value-at-Risk (VaR). We recast the traditional Euler contributions from an expectation conditional on an…
We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm's asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages:…
We introduce a random partition model for Bayesian nonparametric regression. The model is based on infinitely-many disjoint regions of the range of a latent covariate-dependent Gaussian process. Given a realization of the process, the…
We consider active learning (AL) in an uncertain environment in which trade-off between multiple risk measures need to be considered. As an AL problem in such an uncertain environment, we study Mean-Variance Analysis in Bayesian…
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the…