Related papers: Bayesian Analysis of Value-at-Risk with Product Pa…
This paper considers the use for Value-at-Risk computations of the so-called Beta-Kotz distribution based on a general family of distributions including the classical Gaussian model. Actually, this work develops a new method for estimating…
We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…
We propose a novel Bayesian optimisation procedure for outlier detection in the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We use a parametric product partition model to robustly estimate the systematic risk of an asset. We assume that the returns follow…
Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…
Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to…
Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on…
We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…
Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…
A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…
Monte Carlo Approaches for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) are powerful tools widely used by financial risk managers across the globe. However, they are time consuming and sometimes inaccurate. In this paper, a fast and accurate Monte Carlo…
Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…
Quantification of risk positions under model uncertainty is of crucial importance from both viewpoints of external regulation and internal management. The concept of model uncertainty, sometimes also referred to as model ambiguity. Although…
Partition-wise models offer a flexible approach for modeling complex and multidimensional data that are capable of producing interpretable results. They are based on partitioning the observed data into regions, each of which is modeled with…
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution…
The value-at-risk of a delta-gamma approximated derivatives portfolio can be computed by numerical integration of the characteristic function. However, while the choice of parameters in any numerical integration scheme is paramount, in…
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…
In this paper, we consider a multi-objective control problem for stochastic systems that seeks to minimize a cost of interest while ensuring safety. We introduce a novel measure of safety risk using the conditional value-at-risk and a set…
Value-at-risk (VaR) is an established measure to assess risks in critical real-world applications with random environmental factors. This paper presents a novel VaR upper confidence bound (V-UCB) algorithm for maximizing the VaR of a…
Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…
Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…