Related papers: Efficient rare-event simulation for the maximum of…
Estimating the left tail of quadratic forms in Gaussian random vectors is of major practical importance in many applications. In this letter, we propose an efficient importance sampling estimator that is endowed with the bounded relative…
Consider $n$ real/complex, independent/dependent random variables with respective tail bounds and $g$ a measurable function of the r.v.'s. Consider $f$ the "sharpest" tail bound of $g$ (sharpest in the sense that if $f$ were any less, then…
Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…
We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big-jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes…
We develop a novel procedure for estimating the optimizer of general convex stochastic optimization problems of the form $\min_{x\in\mathcal{X}} \mathbb{E}[F(x,\xi)]$, when the given data is a finite independent sample selected according to…
In this work, we focus on a variant of the generalized linear model (GLM) called corrupted GLM (CGLM) with heavy-tailed features and responses. To robustify the statistical inference on this model, we propose to apply $\ell_4$-norm…
We propose a model of random walks on weighted graphs where the weights are interval valued, and connect it to reversible imprecise Markov chains. While the theory of imprecise Markov chains is now well established, this is a first attempt…
We present an algorithm for distributed estimation of an unknown vector parameter $\boldsymbol{\theta}^\ast \in {\mathbb R}^M$ in the presence of heavy-tailed observation and communication noises. Heavy-tailed noises frequently appear,…
In this paper, the problem of distributed optimization is studied via a network of agents. Each agent only has access to a noisy gradient of its own objective function, and can communicate with its neighbors via a network. To handle this…
Random geometric graphs defined on Euclidean subspaces, also called Gilbert graphs, are widely used to model spatially embedded networks across various domains. In such graphs, nodes are located at random in Euclidean space, and any two…
Long-tail motion forecasting is a core challenge for autonomous driving, where rare yet safety-critical events-such as abrupt maneuvers and dense multi-agent interactions-dominate real-world risk. Existing approaches struggle in these…
Constant-specified and exponential concentration inequalities play an essential role in the finite-sample theory of machine learning and high-dimensional statistics area. We obtain sharper and constants-specified concentration inequalities…
In this paper, we propose a reduced-bias estimator of the EVI for Pareto-type tails (heavy-tailed) distributions. This is derived using the weighted least squares method. It is shown that the estimator is unbiased, consistent and…
We make two closely related theoretical contributions to the use of importance sampling schemes. First, for independent sampling, we prove that the minimax optimal trial distribution coincides with the target if and only if the target…
Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…
We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.
The Improved Cross-Entropy (ICE) method is a powerful tool for estimating failure probabilities in reliability analysis. Its core idea is to approximate the optimal importance-sampling density by minimizing the forward Kullback-Leibler…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…