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Stationary ergodic processes with finite alphabets are estimated by finite memory processes from a sample, an n-length realization of the process, where the memory depth of the estimator process is also estimated from the sample using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-25 Zsolt Talata

We propose a new method for optimistic planning in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes based on the idea of adding regularization to the updates of an otherwise standard approximate value iteration procedure. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Antoine Moulin , Gergely Neu

For optimization on large-scale data, exactly calculating its solution may be computationally difficulty because of the large size of the data. In this paper we consider subsampled optimization for fast approximating the exact solution. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-11 Rong Zhu , Jiming Jiang

In the context of Markov decision processes running in continuous time, one of the most intriguing challenges is the efficient approximation of finite horizon reachability objectives. A multitude of sophisticated model checking algorithms…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-08-03 Yuliya Butkova , Hassan Hatefi , Holger Hermanns , Jan Krcal

The estimation of absorption time distributions of Markov jump processes is an important task in various branches of statistics and applied probability. While the time-homogeneous case is classic, the time-inhomogeneous case has recently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Jamaal Ahmad , Martin Bladt , Mogens Bladt

In this paper we propose a perfect simulation algorithm for the Exponential Random Graph Model, based on the Coupling From The Past method of Propp & Wilson (1996). We use a Glauber dynamics to construct the Markov Chain and we prove the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-04 Andressa Cerqueira , Aurélien Garivier , Florencia Leonardi

An informative measurement is the most efficient way to gain information about an unknown state. We present a first-principles derivation of a general-purpose dynamic programming algorithm that returns an optimal sequence of informative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-01 Peter N. Loxley , Ka-Wai Cheung

The convergence rate of a Markov chain to its stationary distribution is typically assessed using the concept of total variation mixing time. However, this worst-case measure often yields pessimistic estimates and is challenging to infer…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-06 Geoffrey Wolfer , Pierre Alquier

We consider stochastic optimization problems where data is drawn from a Markov chain. Existing methods for this setting crucially rely on knowing the mixing time of the chain, which in real-world applications is usually unknown. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-14 Ron Dorfman , Kfir Y. Levy

We give an account of some results, both old and new, about any $n\times n$ Markov matrix that is embeddable in a one-parameter Markov semigroup. These include the fact that its eigenvalues must lie in a certain region in the unit ball. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-12 E B Davies

We consider the problem of computing optimal policies in average-reward Markov decision processes. This classical problem can be formulated as a linear program directly amenable to saddle-point optimization methods, albeit with a number of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-13 Joan Bas-Serrano , Gergely Neu

Revision of the paper previously entitled "Learning a Machine for the Decision in a Partially Observable Markov Universe" In this paper, we are interested in optimal decisions in a partially observable universe. Our approach is to directly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Frederic Dambreville

Several researchers have proposed minimisation of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a method to quantise probability measures, i.e., to approximate a target distribution by a representative point set. We consider sequential algorithms that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-15 Onur Teymur , Jackson Gorham , Marina Riabiz , Chris. J. Oates

Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-24 Robert Mattila , Cristian R. Rojas , Bo Wahlberg

Statistical modeling often involves identifying an optimal estimate to some underlying probability distribution known to satisfy some given constraints. I show here that choosing as estimate the centroid, or center of mass, of the set…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-11 Jonathan Landy

We study an approximation method for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with continuous spaces. Belief MDP reduction, which has been the standard approach to study POMDPs requires rigorous approximation methods for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-20 Ali Devran Kara , Erhan Bayraktar , Serdar Yuksel

We present a novel deep learning method for estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov processes through discrete sampling. Departing from conventional machine learning, our approach reframes parameter approximation as an optimization…

This article presents a constrained policy optimization approach for the optimal control of systems under nonstationary uncertainties. We introduce an assumption that we call Markov embeddability that allows us to cast the stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Sungho Shin , François Pacaud , Emil Contantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

Two widely used randomized algorithms are the sketch-and-solve method for least-squares regression and the randomized SVD for low-rank approximation. These algorithms apply a random embedding to compress a target matrix, and they perform…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Ethan N. Epperly , Robert J. Webber

The paper provides an overview of the theory and applications of risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. The term 'risk-sensitive' refers here to the use of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent as a means to measure expectation and risk.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-23 Nicole Bäuerle , Anna Jaśkiewicz