Related papers: Statistics of extremes by oracle estimation
Formalising the confrontation of opinions (models) to observations (data) is the task of Inferential Statistics. Information Theory provides us with a basic functional, the relative entropy (or Kullback-Leibler divergence), an asymmetrical…
In this paper, we address high-dimensional parametric estimation of the drift function in diffusion models, specifically focusing on a $d$-dimensional ergodic diffusion process observed at discrete time points. We consider both a general…
We consider the parameter estimation problem of a probabilistic generative model prescribed using a natural exponential family of distributions. For this problem, the typical maximum likelihood estimator usually overfits under limited…
In extreme value statistics, the peaks-over-threshold method is widely used. The method is based on the generalized Pareto distribution characterizing probabilities of exceedances over high thresholds in $\mathbb {R}^d$. We present a…
Wildfires are highly imbalanced natural hazards in both space and severity, making the prediction of extreme events particularly challenging. In this work, we introduce the first ordinal classification framework for forecasting wildfire…
The maximum entropy principle is a powerful tool for solving underdetermined inverse problems. This paper considers the problem of discretizing a continuous distribution, which arises in various applied fields. We obtain the approximating…
We consider three classes of linear differential equations on distribution functions, with a fractional order $\alpha\in [0,1].$ The integer case $\alpha =1$ corresponds to the three classical extreme families. In general, we show that…
A method is described for predicting extremes values beyond the span of historical data. The method - based on extending a curve fitted to a location- and scale-invariant variation of the double-logarithmic QQ-plot - is simple and…
In a variety of applications it is important to extract information from a probability measure $\mu$ on an infinite dimensional space. Examples include the Bayesian approach to inverse problems and possibly conditioned) continuous time…
Here, we introduce a new class of Lindley generated distributions which results in more flexible model with increasing failure rate (IFR), decreasing failure rate(DFR) and up-side down hazard functions for different choices of parametric…
This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…
We consider the fundamental problem of estimating a discrete distribution on a domain of size $K$ with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence. We provide upper and lower bounds on the minimax estimation rate, which show that the…
Neural networks are able to approximate any continuous function on a compact set. However, it is not obvious how to quantify the error of the neural network, i.e., the remaining bias between the function and the neural network. Here, we…
Recent advances in extreme value theory have established $\ell$-Pareto processes as the natural limits for extreme events defined in terms of exceedances of a risk functional. Here we provide methods for the practical modelling of data…
Consider the nonparametric logistic regression problem. In the logistic regression, we usually consider the maximum likelihood estimator, and the excess risk is the expectation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and…
Wide conditions are provided to guarantee asymptotic unbiasedness and L^2-consistency of the introduced estimates of the Kullback-Leibler divergence for probability measures in R^d having densities w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure. These…
Linear fixed point equations in Hilbert spaces arise in a variety of settings, including reinforcement learning, and computational methods for solving differential and integral equations. We study methods that use a collection of random…
Data collection is a critical step in statistical inference and data science, and the goal of statistical experimental design (ED) is to find the data collection setup that can provide most information for the inference. In this work we…
The problem of estimating the Kullback-Leibler divergence $D(P\|Q)$ between two unknown distributions $P$ and $Q$ is studied, under the assumption that the alphabet size $k$ of the distributions can scale to infinity. The estimation is…
A loss function measures the discrepancy between the true values (observations) and their estimated fits, for a given instance of data. A loss function is said to be proper (unbiased, Fisher consistent) if the fits are defined over a unit…