Related papers: On spatial extremes: with application to a rainfal…
Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence…
This paper considers the regional estimation of high quantiles of annual maximal river flow distributions $F$, an important problem from flood frequency analysis. Even though this particular problem has been addressed by many papers, less…
When the complete understanding of a complex system is not available, as, e.g., for systems considered in the real-world, we need a top-down approach to complexity. In this approach one may start with the desire to understand general…
In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating substantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk management strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes in…
The series of mean daily temperature of air recorded over a period of 215 years is used for analysing the dimensionality and the predictability of the atmospheric system. The total number of data points of the series is 78527. Other 37…
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…
We suggest a new methodology for designing robust energy systems. For this, we investigate so-called near-optimal solutions to energy system optimisation models; solutions whose objective values deviate only marginally from the optimum.…
Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…
Environmental phenomena are influenced by complex interactions among various factors. For instance, the amount of rainfall measured at different stations within a given area is shaped by atmospheric conditions, orography, and physics of…
In the Ijjas-Steinhardt cyclic model, the universe passes through phases dominated by radiation, matter, and a dark energy scalar field, with the value of the scale factor increasing with each cycle. Since each cycle terminates in a finite…
We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era…
With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…
The statistical modelling of spatial extremes has recently made major advances. Much of its focus so far has been on the modelling of the magnitudes of extreme events but little attention has been paid on the timing of extremes. To address…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…
The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments.…
We present a multivariate hierarchical space-time model to describe the joint series of monthly extreme temperatures and amounts of rainfall. Data are available for 360 monitoring stations over 60 years, with missing data affecting almost…
There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…