Related papers: The time horizon and its role in multiple species …

We study whether language models (LMs) exhibit future- versus present-oriented preferences in intertemporal choice and whether those preferences can be systematically manipulated. Using adapted human experimental protocols, we evaluate…

Time-to-event prediction, e.g. cancer survival analysis or hospital length of stay, is a highly prominent machine learning task in medical and healthcare applications. However, only a few interpretable machine learning methods comply with…

Tasks that require information about the world imply a trade-off between the time spent on observation and the variance of the response. In particular, fast decisions need to rely on uncertain information. However, standard estimates of…

We propose a model to characterize how a diffusing population adapts under a time periodic selection, while its environment undergoes shifts and size changes, leading to significant differences with classical results on fixed domains. After…

For right censored survival data, it is well known that the mean survival time can be consistently estimated when the support of the censoring time contains the support of the survival time. In practice, however, this condition can be…

In evolutionary algorithms, the fitness of a population increases with time by mutating and recombining individuals and by a biased selection of more fit individuals. The right selection pressure is critical in ensuring sufficient…

Lehmann's ideas on concepts of dependence have had a profound effect on mathematical theory of reliability. The aim of this paper is two-fold. The first is to show how the notion of a ``hazard potential'' can provide an explanation for the…

People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…

When data are right-censored, i.e. some outcomes are missing due to a limited period of observation, survival analysis can compute the "time to event". Multiple classes of outcomes lead to a classification variant: predicting the most…

Models for predicting the time of a future event are crucial for risk assessment, across a diverse range of applications. Existing time-to-event (survival) models have focused primarily on preserving pairwise ordering of estimated event…

Market-based conservation instruments, such as payments, auctions or tradable permits, are environmental policies that create financial incentives for landowners to engage in voluntary conservation on their land. But what if ecological…

The evolution of preferences that account for other agents' fitness, or other-regarding preferences, has been modeled with the "indirect approach" to evolutionary game theory. Under the indirect evolutionary approach, agents make decisions…

Population diversity is crucial in evolutionary algorithms to enable global exploration and to avoid poor performance due to premature convergence. This book chapter reviews runtime analyses that have shown benefits of population diversity,…

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) expresses the proportion of events that can be ascribed to a certain exposure in a certain population. It can be strongly time-dependent because either exposure incidence or excess risk may change…

Quantifying out-of-sample discrimination performance for time-to-event outcomes is a fundamental step for model evaluation and selection in the context of predictive modelling. The concordance index, or C-index, is a widely used metric for…

Survival analysis deals with modeling the time until an event occurs, and accurate probability estimates are crucial for decision-making, particularly in the competing-risks setting where multiple events are possible. While recent work has…

Policies to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss often assume that protecting carbon-rich forests provides co-benefits in terms of biodiversity, due to the spatial congruence of carbon stocks and biodiversity at biogeographic…

Mimicry is a resemblance between species that benefits at least one of the species. It is a ubiquitous evolutionary phenomenon particularly common among prey species, in which case the advantage involves better protection from predation. We…

This paper empirically analyzes how individual characteristics are associated with risk aversion, loss aversion, time discounting, and present bias. To this end, we conduct a large-scale demographically representative survey across eight…

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent…