Related papers: The time horizon and its role in multiple species …

We consider portfolio selection when decisions based on a dynamic risk measure are affected by the use of a moving horizon, and the possible inconsistencies that this creates. By giving a formal treatment of time consistency which is…

In this study we are concerned with the general problem of choosing from a set of endangered species T a subset S of k species to protect as a priority. Here, the interest to protect the species of S is assessed by the resulting expected…

Accurate time-to-event prediction is integral to decision-making, informing medical guidelines, hiring decisions, and resource allocation. Survival analysis, the quantitative framework used to model time-to-event data, accounts for patients…

Many life-history traits, like the age at maturity or adult longevity, are important determinants of the generation time. For instance, semelparous species whose adults reproduce once and die have shorter generation times than iteroparous…

Time-varying covariates are often available in survival studies and estimation of the hazard function needs to be updated as new information becomes available. In this paper, we investigate several different easy-to-implement ways that…

We study a model of temporal voting where there is a fixed time horizon, and at each round the voters report their preferences over the available candidates and a single candidate is selected. Prior work has adapted popular notions of…

Survival data with time-varying covariates are common in practice. If relevant, they can improve on the estimation of survival function. However, the traditional survival forests - conditional inference forest, relative risk forest and…

Natural ecosystems, in particular on the microbial scale, are inhabited by a large number of species. The population size of each species is affected by interactions of individuals with each other and by spatial and temporal changes in…

Assuming some regression model, it is common to study the conditional distribution of survival given covariates. Here, we consider the impact of further conditioning, specifically conditioning on a marginal survival function, known or…

The conditional survival function of a time-to-event outcome subject to censoring and truncation is a common target of estimation in survival analysis. This parameter may be of scientific interest and also often appears as a nuisance in…

Many mathematical models of evolution assume that all individuals experience the same environment. Here, we study the Moran process in heterogeneous environments. The population is of finite size with two competing types, which are exposed…

Protected areas are an important conservation measure. However, there are controversial findings regarding whether closed areas are beneficial for species and habitat conservation as well as landings. Species dispersal is acknowledged as a…

Survival regression is widely used to model time-to-events data, to explore how covariates may influence the occurrence of events. Modern datasets often encompass a vast number of covariates across many subjects, with only a subset of the…

Travel time savings are usually the most substantial economic benefit of transport infrastructure projects. However, questions surround whether small time savings are as valuable per unit as larger savings. Thresholds in individual choice…

Difficulties identifying appropriate biodiversity impact metrics remain a major barrier to inclusion of biodiversity considerations in environmentally responsible investment. We propose and analyse a simple science-based local metric: the…

We propose a novel approach for estimating mean survival time in the presence of censored data, in which we divide the population under study into survival-ordered fractions defined by a set of proportions, and compute the mean survival…

We are living in an uncertain and dynamically changing world, where optimal decision-making under uncertainty is directly linked to the survival of species. However, evolutionary selection pressures that shape value-based decision-making…

We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and local extinction…

Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without the exposure, which is common in environmental time-series studies.…

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…