Related papers: Conservative statistical post-election audits

A method is described, which computes from an observed sample of events upper limits for production rates of particles, or, in case of appearance of a signal, the probability for an upwards fluctuation of the background. For any candidate,…

Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what…

The mid-p-value is a proposed improvement on the ordinary p-value for the case where the test statistic is partially or completely discrete. In this case, the ordinary p-value is conservative, meaning that its null distribution is larger…

Determining the number of change-points is a first-step and fundamental task in change-point detection problems, as it lays the groundwork for subsequent change-point position estimation. While the existing literature offers various methods…

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. We propose a wide class of recursive estimation procedures for the general…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

Hypothesis test plays a key role in uncertain statistics based on uncertain measure. This paper extends the parametric hypothesis of a single uncertain population to multiple cases, thereby addressing a broader range of scenarios. First, an…

Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are post-election auditing procedures that rigorously guarantee a specified maximum probability that an incorrect electoral outcome will not be detected. Aside from ready access to physical ballots, known RLAs…

Sample size calculations can be challenging with skewed continuous outcomes in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Standard t-test-based calculations may require data transformation, which may be difficult before data collection.…

In this paper, a new method of detection of election fraud is proposed. This method is based on the calculation of the ratio of two standard normal random variables; estimation of parameters of obtained sample and comparison of these…

The ultimate limits of quantum state discrimination are often thought to be captured by asymptotic bounds that restrict the achievable error probabilities, notably the quantum Chernoff and Hoeffding bounds. Here we study hypothesis testing…

Representative risk estimation is fundamental to clinical decision-making. However, risks are often estimated from non-representative epidemiologic studies, which usually underrepresent minorities. "Model-based" methods use population…

We investigate approval-based committee voting with incomplete information about the approval preferences of voters. We consider several models of incompleteness where each voter partitions the set of candidates into approved, disapproved,…

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large…

A key trait of stochastic optimizers is that multiple runs of the same optimizer in attempting to solve the same problem can produce different results. As a result, their performance is evaluated over several repeats, or runs, on the…

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prevalent in education research, and are often regarded as a gold standard of causal inference. Two main virtues of randomized experiments are that they (1) do not suffer from…

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are a significant tool in increasing confidence in the accuracy of elections. They consist of randomized algorithms which check that an election's vote tally, as reported by a vote tabulation system, corresponds…

Voting can abstractly model any decision-making scenario and as such it has been extensively studied over the decades. Recently, the related literature has focused on quantifying the impact of utilizing only limited information in the…