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Stochastic models for collections of interacting populations have crucial roles in scientific fields such as epidemiology and ecology, yet the standard approach to extending an ordinary differential equation model to a Markov chain does not…
Bayesian graphical modeling provides an appealing way to obtain uncertainty estimates when inferring network structures, and much recent progress has been made for Gaussian models. These models have been used extensively in applications to…
Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…
Graphical models in extremes have emerged as a diverse and quickly expanding research area in extremal dependence modeling. They allow for parsimonious statistical methodology and are particularly suited for enforcing sparsity in…
We consider situations where data have been collected such that the sampling depends on the outcome of interest and possibly further covariates, as for instance in case-control studies. Graphical models represent assumptions about the…
The local Markov condition for a DAG to be an independence map of a probability distribution is well known. For DAGs with latent variables, represented as bi-directed edges in the graph, the local Markov property may invoke exponential…
Graphical models use graphs to represent conditional independence structure in the distribution of a random vector. In stochastic processes, graphs may represent so-called local independence or conditional Granger causality. Under some…
Graphical model learning and inference are often performed using Bayesian techniques. In particular, learning is usually performed in two separate steps. First, the graph structure is learned from the data; then the parameters of the model…
Symmetric independence relations are often studied using graphical representations. Ancestral graphs or acyclic directed mixed graphs with $m$-separation provide classes of symmetric graphical independence models that are closed under…
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models, also called Bayesian networks, impose conditional independence constraints on a multivariate probability distribution, and are widely used in probabilistic reasoning, machine learning and causal…
A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…
We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series…
Conditional independence and graphical models are crucial concepts for sparsity and statistical modeling in higher dimensions. For L\'evy processes, a widely applied class of stochastic processes, these notions have not been studied. By the…
This work reports the most relevant technical aspects in the problem of learning the \emph{Markov network structure} from data. Such problem has become increasingly important in machine learning, and many other application fields of machine…
We describe a procedure to introduce general dependence structures on a set of Dirichlet processes. Dependence can be in one direction to define a time series or in two directions to define spatial dependencies. More directions can also be…
A new class of graphical models capturing the dependence structure of events that occur in time is proposed. The graphs represent so-called local independences, meaning that the intensities of certain types of events are independent of some…
A graphical model is a statistical model that is associated to a graph whose nodes correspond to variables of interest. The edges of the graph reflect allowed conditional dependencies among the variables. Graphical models admit…
The fundamental concepts underlying in Markov networks are the conditional independence and the set of rules called Markov properties that translates conditional independence constraints into graphs. In this article we introduce the concept…
Real-world complex systems are often modelled by sets of equations with endogenous and exogenous variables. What can we say about the causal and probabilistic aspects of variables that appear in these equations without explicitly solving…
We present a non-parametric Bayesian latent variable model capable of learning dependency structures across dimensions in a multivariate setting. Our approach is based on flexible Gaussian process priors for the generative mappings and…