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Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of…
In this paper we survey the almost sure central limit theorem and its functional form (quenched) for stationary and ergodic processes. For additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain these theorems are known under the…
It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…
We perform Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for a Bayesian inference of the GJR-GARCH model which is one of asymmetric GARCH models. The adaptive construction scheme is used for the construction of the proposal density in the…
We establish results with an arithmetic flavor that generalize the polynomial multidimensional Szemeredi theorem and related multiple recurrence and convergence results in ergodic theory. For instance, we show that in all these statements…
We present a coupling framework to upper bound the total variation mixing time of various Metropolis-adjusted, gradient-based Markov kernels in the `high acceptance regime'. The approach uses a localization argument to boost local mixing of…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…
We introduce a new property of Markov chains, called variance bounding. We prove that, for reversible chains at least, variance bounding is weaker than, but closely related to, geometric ergodicity. Furthermore, variance bounding is…
We introduce a new framework for efficient sampling from complex probability distributions, using a combination of optimal transport maps and the Metropolis-Hastings rule. The core idea is to use continuous transportation to transform…
Among random sampling methods, Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are foremost. Using a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we study their convergence properties towards the steady state, within a random walk Metropolis…
We study the convergence properties of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for Bayesian vector autoregressions with predictors, or exogenous variables. The Markov chain generated by our algorithm is shown to be geometrically ergodic regardless of…
We introduce new Gaussian proposals to improve the efficiency of the standard Hastings-Metropolis algorithm in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, used for the sampling from a target distribution in large dimension $d$. The improved…
The purpose of this paper is to study the time average behavior of Markov chains with transition probabilities being kernels of completely continuous operators, and therefore to provide a sufficient condition for a class of Markov chains…
Event-Chain Monte Carlo (ECMC) methods generate continuous-time and non-reversible Markov processes which often display significant accelerations compared to reversible counterparts. However their generalization to any system may appear…
Powerful ideas recently appeared in the literature are adjusted and combined to design improved samplers for Bayesian exponential random graph models. Different forms of adaptive Metropolis-Hastings proposals (vertical, horizontal and…
Many modern applications collect highly imbalanced categorical data, with some categories relatively rare. Bayesian hierarchical models combat data sparsity by borrowing information, while also quantifying uncertainty. However, posterior…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are often used for analyzing correlated non-Gaussian data. The likelihood function in a GLMM is available only as a high dimensional integral, and thus closed-form inference and prediction are not…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. A leapfrog integrator is commonly used to implement HMC in practice, but its performance can be…