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Many problems in causal inference and economics can be formulated in the framework of conditional moment models, which characterize the target function through a collection of conditional moment restrictions. For nonparametric conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-29 Ziyu Wang , Yucen Luo , Yueru Li , Jun Zhu , Bernhard Schölkopf

The genealogical structure of self-similar growth-fragmentations can be described in terms of a branching random walk. The so-called intrinsic area $\mathrm{A}$ arises in this setting as the terminal value of a remarkable additive…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-22 Jean Bertoin , Nicolas Curien , Igor Kortchemski

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Alessandro Casini , Pierre Perron

In the past several years a wide range of methods for the construction of regression trees and other estimators based on the recursive partitioning of samples have appeared in the statistics literature. Many applications involve data…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-07 Daniell Toth , John Eltinge

We consider discrete-time observations of a continuous martingale under measurement error. This serves as a fundamental model for high-frequency data in finance, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-12 Markus Reiß

We develop a continuous-time penalized regression framework for the estimation of time-varying coefficients and variable selection when both the response and covariates are It\^o semimartingales with jumps. The coefficient paths are…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Aleksey Kolokolov , Shifan Yu

For the estimation of cumulative link models for ordinal data, the bias-reducing adjusted score equations in \citet{firth:93} are obtained, whose solution ensures an estimator with smaller asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis

This paper addresses important weaknesses in current methodology for the estimation of multivariate extreme event distributions. The estimation of the residual dependence index $\eta \in (0,1]$ is notoriously problematic. We introduce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Jennifer Israelsson , Emily Black , Claudia Neves , David Walshaw

We study parameter estimation and asymptotic inference for sparse nonlinear regression. More specifically, we assume the data are given by $y = f( x^\top \beta^* ) + \epsilon$, where $f$ is nonlinear. To recover $\beta^*$, we propose an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-17 Zhuoran Yang , Zhaoran Wang , Han Liu , Yonina C. Eldar , Tong Zhang

Nonparametric regression problems with qualitative constraints such as monotonicity or convexity are ubiquitous in applications. For example, in predicting the yield of a factory in terms of the number of labor hours, the monotonicity of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Soham Mallick , Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-20 Victor Konev , Serguei Pergamenchtchikov

In recent literature, when modeling for information freshness in remote estimation settings, estimators have been mainly restricted to the class of martingale estimators, meaning the remote estimate at any time is equal to the most recently…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Sahan Liyanaarachchi , Sennur Ulukus , Nail Akar

We study a regression problem where for some part of the data we observe both the label variable ($Y$) and the predictors (${\bf X}$), while for other part of the data only the predictors are given. Such a problem arises, for example, when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-14 David Azriel , Lawrence D. Brown , Michael Sklar , Richard Berk , Andreas Buja , Linda Zhao

We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Keisuke Hirano , Jack R. Porter

We investigate the unconditional basis property of martingale differences in weighted $L^2$ spaces in the non-homogeneous situation (i.e. when the reference measure is not doubling). Specifically, we prove that finiteness of the quantity…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-11-20 C. Thiele , S. Treil , A. Volberg

We derive asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when payoffs depend on a partially-identified parameter $\theta$ and the decision maker can use a point-identified parameter $\mu$ to deduce…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-19 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

We present a new replay-based method of continual classification learning that we term "conditional replay" which generates samples and labels together by sampling from a distribution conditioned on the class. We compare conditional replay…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Timothée Lesort , Alexander Gepperth , Andrei Stoian , David Filliat

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

This paper discusses two goodness-of-fit testing problems. The first problem pertains to fitting an error distribution to an assumed nonlinear parametric regression model, while the second pertains to fitting a parametric regression model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Estate V. Khmaladze , Hira L. Koul

Self-normalized processes arise naturally in statistical applications. Being unit free, they are not affected by scale changes. Moreover, self-normalization often eliminates or weakens moment assumptions. In this paper we present several…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Victor H. de la Pena , Michael J. Klass , Tze Leung Lai
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