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Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental…
Community assembly is studied using individual-based multispecies models. The models have stochastic population dynamics with mutation, migration, and extinction of species. Mutants appear as a result of mutation of the resident species,…
We continue the investigations of an ecosystem where a epidemic-affected population can move between two connected patches, by considering what happens to the system when the migration paths are interrupted in one direction, or when the…
'Evolutionary rescue' is the potential for evolution to enable population persistence in a changing environment. Even with eventual rescue, evolutionary time lags can cause the population size to temporarily fall below a threshold…
This study develops a statistical model that integrates economic agglomeration theory and power-law distributions of city sizes to project future population distribution on 1-km grid cells. We focus on Japan -- a country at the forefront of…
We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly…
Cities are experiencing significant warming and more frequent climate extremes, raising risks for over 90% of Australians living in cities. Yet many of our tools for climate prediction and projection lack accurate representations of these…
Transport through nano-channels plays an important role in many biological processes and industrial applications. Gaining insights into the functioning of biological transport processes and the design of man-made nano-devices requires an…
The ecological dynamics of interacting predator and prey populations can display sustained oscillations, as for instance predicted by the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model. The presence of demographic stochasticity, due to the…
Automated Vehicles (AVs) are expected to disrupt the transport sector in the future. Extensive research efforts have been dedicated to studying its potential implications. However, the existing literature is yet limited regarding the…
This paper is mainly devoted to lay an empirical foundation for further research on complex spatial dynamics of two-population interaction. Based on the US population census data, a rural and urban population interaction model is developed.…
Motivated by recent experimental work of Burd et al., we propose a model of bi-directional ant-traffic on pre-existing ant-trails. It captures in a simple way some of the generic collective features of movements of real ants on a trail.…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
Models of population growth and extinction are an increasingly popular subject of study. However, consequences of stochasticity and noise in shaping distributions and outcomes are not sufficiently explored. Here we consider a distributed…
The intensification and increased frequency of weather extremes is emerging as one of the most important aspects of climate change. We use Monte Carlo simulation to understand and predict the consequences of variations in trends (i.e.,…
Collective motion by animal groups is affected by internal interactions, external constraints and the influx of information. A quantitative understanding of how these different factors give rise to different modes of collective motion is,…
A key question in evolution is how likely a mutant is to take over. This depends on natural selection and on stochastic fluctuations. Population spatial structure can impact mutant fixation probabilities. We introduce a model for structured…
Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption,…
When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the…
Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger abrupt transitions in moisture regimes remains incomplete. This challenge…