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Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-19 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Frances Ding , Yixin Wang

This paper proposes an algorithm capable of driving a system to follow a piecewise linear trajectory without prior knowledge of the system dynamics. Motivated by a critical failure scenario in which a system can experience an abrupt change…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Taha Shafa , Yiming Meng , Melkior Ornik

In many applications, data is collected in batches, some of which are corrupt or even adversarial. Recent work derived optimal robust algorithms for estimating discrete distributions in this setting. We consider a general framework of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ayush Jain , Alon Orlitsky

Query-driven machine learning models have emerged as a promising estimation technique for query selectivities. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the efficacy of these techniques from a theoretical perspective, as there exist…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peizhi Wu , Haoshu Xu , Ryan Marcus , Zachary G. Ives

Machine learning algorithms are typically run on large scale, distributed compute infrastructure that routinely face a number of unavailabilities such as failures and temporary slowdowns. Adding redundant computations using coding-theoretic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-05 Jack Kosaian , K. V. Rashmi , Shivaram Venkataraman

We present a new algorithm for probabilistic planning with no observability. Our algorithm, called Probabilistic-FF, extends the heuristic forward-search machinery of Conformant-FF to problems with probabilistic uncertainty about both the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-11-02 C. Domshlak , J. Hoffmann

Supervised learning aims to train a classifier under the assumption that training and test data are from the same distribution. To ease the above assumption, researchers have studied a more realistic setting: out-of-distribution (OOD)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Zhen Fang , Yixuan Li , Jie Lu , Jiahua Dong , Bo Han , Feng Liu

In this paper, we focus on the problem of stable prediction across unknown test data, where the test distribution is agnostic and might be totally different from the training one. In such a case, previous machine learning methods might…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Kun Kuang , Bo Li , Peng Cui , Yue Liu , Jianrong Tao , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl , James M. Robins

We study the problem, introduced by Qiao and Valiant, of learning from untrusted batches. Here, we assume $m$ users, all of whom have samples from some underlying distribution $p$ over $1, \ldots, n$. Each user sends a batch of $k$ i.i.d.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-11-07 Sitan Chen , Jerry Li , Ankur Moitra

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Dimitris Bertsimas , Benjamin Boucher

State-of-the-art results in typical classification tasks are mostly achieved by unexplainable machine learning methods, like deep neural networks, for instance. Contrarily, in this paper, we investigate the application of rule learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Albert Nössig , Tobias Hell , Georg Moser

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

When faced with the problem of learning a model of a high-dimensional environment, a common approach is to limit the model to make only a restricted set of predictions, thereby simplifying the learning problem. These partial models may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-01-17 Erik Talvitie , Satinder Singh

We consider a new framework where a continuous, though bounded, random variable has unobserved bounds that vary over time. In the context of univariate time series, we look at the bounds as parameters of the distribution of the bounded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-26 Amandine Pierrot , Pierre Pinson

We present a general framework for classifying partially observed dynamical systems based on the idea of learning in the model space. In contrast to the existing approaches using model point estimates to represent individual data items, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-19 Yuan Shen , Peter Tino , Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova

We introduce temporally and contextually-aware models for the novel task of predicting unseen but plausible concepts, as conveyed by noun-noun compounds in a time-stamped corpus. We train compositional models on observed compounds, more…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-09-26 Prajit Dhar , Lonneke van der Plas

Predicting delayed outcomes is an important problem in recommender systems (e.g., if customers will finish reading an ebook). We formalize the problem as an adversarial, delayed online learning problem and consider how a proxy for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-16 Timothy A. Mann , Sven Gowal , András György , Ray Jiang , Huiyi Hu , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Prav Srinivasan