Related papers: Admissible predictive density estimation
We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…
For a larger set of predictions of several differently trained machine learning models, known as bagging predictors, the mean of all predictions is taken by default. Nevertheless, this proceeding can deviate from the actual ground truth in…
This paper considers reparameterization invariant Bayesian point estimates and credible regions of model parameters for scientific inference and communication. The effect of intrinsic loss function choice in Bayesian intrinsic estimates and…
In this paper, we develop a new elegant framework relying on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion to address the design of one-stage adaptive detection architectures for multiple hypothesis testing problems. Specifically, at the…
Consider the problem of estimating a random variable $X$ from noisy observations $Y = X+ Z$, where $Z$ is standard normal, under the $L^1$ fidelity criterion. It is well known that the optimal Bayesian estimator in this setting is the…
We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets. Starting from the classical equivalence between…
We propose a new approach for assigning weights to models using a divergence-based method ({\em D-probabilities}), relying on evaluating parametric models relative to a nonparametric Bayesian reference using Kullback-Leibler divergence.…
In the context of regressing a response $Y$ on a predictor $X$, we consider estimating the local modes of the distribution of $Y$ given $X=x$ when $X$ is prone to measurement error. We propose two nonparametric estimation methods, with one…
The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…
A sequence $x_1,\dots,x_n,\dots$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, one is required to give conditional probabilities of the next…
In this paper, we study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are piecewise constant functions on binary partitions. We analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution under a…
We address learning from positive and unlabeled (PU) data, a common setting in which only some positives are labeled and the rest are mixed with negatives. Classical exponential tilting models guarantee identifiability by assuming a linear…
In today's data-intensive landscape, where high-dimensional datasets are increasingly common, reducing the number of input features is essential to prevent overfitting and improve model accuracy. Despite numerous efforts to tackle…
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…
The fundamental task of general density estimation $p(x)$ has been of keen interest to machine learning. In this work, we attempt to systematically characterize methods for density estimation. Broadly speaking, most of the existing methods…
Bayesian variable selection has gained much empirical success recently in a variety of applications when the number $K$ of explanatory variables $(x_1,...,x_K)$ is possibly much larger than the sample size $n$. For generalized linear…
Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…
The composite binary hypothesis testing problem within the Neyman-Pearson framework is considered. The goal is to maximize the expectation of a nonlinear function of the detection probability, integrated with respect to a given probability…
In observational studies, the propensity score plays a central role in estimating causal effects of interest. The inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used for this purpose. However, if the propensity score model is…
We are interested in the problem of robust parametric estimation of a density from $n$ i.i.d. observations. By using a practice-oriented procedure based on robust tests, we build an estimator for which we establish non-asymptotic risk…