Related papers: Admissible predictive density estimation
We consider the problem of estimating the finite population mean $\bar{Y}$ of an outcome variable $Y$ using data from a nonprobability sample and auxiliary information from a probability sample. Existing double robust (DR) estimators of…
We study the interpretability of conditional probability estimates for binary classification under the agnostic setting or scenario. Under the agnostic setting, conditional probability estimates do not necessarily reflect the true…
Brown's 1971 paper "Admissible estimators, recurrent diffusions and insoluble boundary value problems" is a landmark in the admissibility literature. It nearly completely settles the issue of admissibility/inadmissibility for estimating the…
Positivity of the prior probability of Kullback-Leibler neighborhood around the true density, commonly known as the Kullback-Leibler property, plays a fundamental role in posterior consistency. A popular prior for Bayesian estimation is…
Consider the task of estimating a random vector $X$ from noisy observations $Y = X + Z$, where $Z$ is a standard normal vector, under the $L^p$ fidelity criterion. This work establishes that, for $1 \leq p \leq 2$, the optimal Bayesian…
When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…
The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…
An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…
Frequentist conditions for asymptotic suitability of Bayesian procedures focus on lower bounds for prior mass in Kullback-Leibler neighbourhoods of the data distribution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the flexibility in criteria…
We begin by introducing a class of conditional density estimators based on local polynomial techniques. The estimators are boundary adaptive and easy to implement. We then study the (pointwise and) uniform statistical properties of the…
We give an exact characterization of admissibility in statistical decision problems in terms of Bayes optimality in a so-called nonstandard extension of the original decision problem, as introduced by Duanmu and Roy. Unlike the…
We extend several recent results providing symmetry-based guarantees for variational inference (VI) with location-scale families. VI approximates a target density $p$ by the best match $q^*$ in a family $Q$ of tractable distributions that…
Bayesian analysis of data from the general linear mixed model is challenging because any nontrivial prior leads to an intractable posterior density. However, if a conditionally conjugate prior density is adopted, then there is a simple…
The current definition of a Bayesian credible set cannot, in general, achieve an arbitrarily preassigned credible level. This drawback is particularly acute for classification problems, where there are only a finite number of achievable…
Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…
We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…
It is now practically the norm for data to be very high dimensional in areas such as genetics, machine vision, image analysis and many others. When analyzing such data, parametric models are often too inflexible while nonparametric…
Under mild conditions, it is shown the strong consistency of the Bayes estimator of the density. Moreover, the Bayes risk (for some common loss functions) of the Bayes estimator of the density (i.e. the posterior predictive density) reaches…
We consider the problem of estimating probability density functions based on sample data, using a finite mixture of densities from some component class. To this end, we introduce the $h$-lifted Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence as a…
One-step ahead prediction for the multinomial model is considered. The performance of a predictive density is evaluated by the average Kullback-Leibler divergence from the true density to the predictive density. Asymptotic approximations of…