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We consider the problem of estimating the unconditional distribution of a post-model-selection estimator. The notion of a post-model-selection estimator here refers to the combined procedure resulting from first selecting a model (e.g., by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-11-08 Hannes Leeb , Benedikt M. Poetscher

In this work, we focus on some conditional extreme risk measures estimation for elliptical random vectors. In a previous paper, we proposed a methodology to approximate extreme quantiles, based on two extremal parameters. We thus propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-26 Antoine Usseglio-Carleve

In public discussions of the quality of forecasts, attention typically focuses on the predictive performance in cases of extreme events. However, the restriction of conventional forecast evaluation methods to subsets of extreme observations…

Any limiting point process for the time normalized exceedances of high levels by a stationary sequence is necessarily compound Poisson under appropriate long range dependence conditions. Typically exceedances appear in clusters. The…

Applications · Statistics 2009-03-03 Christian Y. Robert

In this paper, we study limiting laws and consistent estimation criteria for the extreme eigenvalues in a spiked covariance model of dimension $p$. Firstly, for fixed $p$, we propose a generalized estimation criterion that can consistently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-26 Jianwei Hu , Jingfei Zhang , Jianhua Guo , Ji Zhu

We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 David Tolpin , Yuan Zhou , Tom Rainforth , Hongseok Yang

Consider bivariate observations $(X_1,Y_1), \ldots, (X_n,Y_n) \in \mathbb{R}\times \mathbb{R}$ with unknown conditional distributions $Q_x$ of $Y$, given that $X = x$. The goal is to estimate these distributions under the sole assumption…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-31 Alexandre Mösching , Lutz Duembgen

Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-11 Filippo Radicchi

Multivariate distributions are explored using the joint distributions of marginal sample quantiles. Limit theory for the mean of a function of order statistics is presented. The results include a multivariate central limit theorem and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-25 G. Jogesh Babu , Zhidong Bai , Kwok Pui Choi , Vasudevan Mangalam

In extreme value analysis, the extreme value index plays a vital role as it determines the tail heaviness of the underlying distribution and is the primary parameter required for the estimation of other extreme events. In this paper, we…

Computation · Statistics 2017-09-27 Richard Minkah , Tertius de Wet , Ezekiel Nii Noi Nortey

In this article, we discuss a bivariate distribution whose conditionals are univariate binomial distributions and the marginals are not binomial that exhibits negative correlation. Some useful structural properties of this distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-10 Indranil Ghosh , Filipe Marques , Subrata Chakraborty

Consider a continuous random pair $(X,Y)$ whose dependence is characterized by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function $A$. When the marginal distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are known, several consistent estimators of $A$ are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Christian Genest , Johan Segers

We consider conditional estimation in two-stage sample size adjustable designs and the following bias. More specifically, we consider a design which permits raising the sample size when interim results look rather promising, and, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-27 Per Broberg , Frank Miller

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

We revisit the problem of condensation for independent, identically distributed random variables with a power-law tail, conditioned by the value of their sum. For large values of the sum, and for a large number of summands, a condensation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-03 Claude Godrèche

We consider a random variable $Y$ and approximations $Y\_n$, defined on the same probability space with values in the same measurable space as $Y$. We are interested in situations where the approximations $Y\_n$ allow to define a Dirichlet…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Nicolas Bouleau

We consider the problem of testing the equality of conditional distributions of a response variable given a vector of covariates between two populations. Such a hypothesis testing problem can be motivated from various machine learning and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-24 Xiaoyu Hu , Jing Lei

Multivariate extreme value theory assumes a multivariate domain of attraction condition for the distribution of a random vector. This necessitates that each component satisfies a marginal domain of attraction condition. An approximation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-11 Bikramjit Das , Sidney I. Resnick

The multivariate conditional probability distribution models the effects of a set of variables onto the statistical properties of another set of variables. In the study of systemic risk in a financial system, the multivariate conditional…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-05 Tomaso Aste

We present new estimators for the statistical analysis of the dependence of the mean gap time length between consecutive recurrent events, on a set of explanatory random variables and in the presence of right censoring. The dependence is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-10 Ioana Schiopu-Kratina , Hai Yan Liu , Mayer Alvo , Pierre-Jerome Bergeron