Related papers: The end of Sleeping Beauty's nightmare
A large number of essays address the Sleeping Beauty problem, which undermines the validity of Bayesian inference and Bas Van Fraassen's 'Reflection Principle'. In this study a straightforward analysis of the problem based on probability…
A careful analysis of conditioning in the Sleeping Beauty problem is done, using the formal model for reasoning about knowledge and probability developed by Halpern and Tuttle. While the Sleeping Beauty problem has been viewed as revealing…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a problem of imperfect recall that has received considerable attention. One approach to solving the Sleeping Beauty problem is to allow Sleeping Beauty to make decisions based on her beliefs, and then…
Significant controversy remains about what constitute correct self-locating beliefs in scenarios such as the Sleeping Beauty problem, with proponents on both the "halfer" and "thirder" sides. To attempt to settle the issue, one natural…
How should we update de dicto beliefs in the face of de se evidence? The Sleeping Beauty problem divides philosophers into two camps, halfers and thirders. But there is some disagreement among halfers about how their position should…
The Sleeping Beauty Problem remains a paradoxical problem that penetrates multiple disciplines that include probability theory, self-locating belief, decision theory, cognitive science, the philosophy of mathematics and science. It asks the…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a probability riddle with no definite solution for more than two decades and its solution is of great interest in many fields of knowledge. There are two main competing solutions to the problem: the halfer…
This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in probability theory that has gained much attention since Elga's discussion of it [Elga, Adam, Analysis 60 (2), p.143-147 (2000)]. Sleeping Beauty is put asleep, and a coin is tossed. If the outcome…
In the context of the Sleeping Beauty problem, it has been argued that so-called "halfers" can avoid Dutch book arguments by adopting evidential decision theory. I introduce a Dutch book for a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem and…
The Sleeping Beauty Problem (SBP) is a long-standing puzzle in classical probability theory and has been used to challenge the Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics, since both involve objective determinacy combined with…
I consider the puzzles arising from four interrelated problems involving `anthropic' reasoning, and in particular the `Self-Sampling Assumption' (SSA) - that one should reason as if one were randomly chosen from the set of all observers in…
A number of problems in physics, mathematics, and philosophy involve observers in given situations which lead to debates about whether observer-specific information should affect the probability for some outcome or hypothesis. Our purpose…
The AGM recovery postulate says: assume a set of propositions X; assume that it is consistent and that it is closed under logical consequences; remove a belief P from the set minimally, but make sure that the resultant set is again some set…
There are three principle paradigms of statistics: Bayesian, frequentist and information-based inference. Although these paradigms are in agreement in some contexts, the Lindley paradox describes a class of problems, models of unknown…
The problem of induction has persisted since Hume exposed the logical gap between repeated observation and universal inference. Traditional attempts to resolve it have oscillated between two extremes: the probabilistic optimism of Laplace…
A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…
The classical conception of falsification presents scientific theories as entities that are decisively refuted when their predictions fail. This picture has long been challenged by both philosophical analysis and scientific practice, yet…
We discuss epistemological and methodological aspects of the Bayesian approach in astrophysics and cosmology. The introduction to the Bayesian framework is given for a further discussion concerning the Bayesian inference in physics. The…
We consider models for inference which involve observers which may have multiple copies, such as in the Sleeping Beauty problem. We establish a framework for describing these problems on a probability space satisfying Kolmogorov's axioms,…