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This paper develops efficient ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) implementations based on shrinkage covariance estimation. The forecast ensemble members at each step are used to estimate the background error covariance matrix via the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-03 Elias D. Nino-Ruiz , Adrian Sandu

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to analyze the converge of an ensemble Kalman filter solution to an exact Kalman filter solution in the simplest possible setting, the scalar case, as it allows us to build upon a rich literature of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-31 Andrey A Popov , Adrian Sandu

In this paper, we propose and develop a methodology for nonlinear systems health monitoring by modeling the damage and degradation mechanism dynamics as "slow" states that are augmented with the system "fast" dynamical states. This…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-17 Najmeh Daroogheh , Nader Meskin , Khashayar Khorasani

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used methodology for state estimation in partial, noisily observed dynamical systems, and for parameter estimation in inverse problems. Despite its widespread use in the geophysical sciences,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Claudia Schillings , Andrew M. Stuart

Despite the cheap availability of computing resources enabling faster Monte Carlo simulations, the potential benefits of particle filtering in revealing accurate statistical information on the imprecisely known model parameters or modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-07 Saikat Sarkar , Debasish Roy

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for performing inference in state-space models (SSMs), particularly when the dynamic process is high-dimensional. Unlike reweighting methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, i.e.…

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-17 D. T. B. Kelly , K. J. H. Law , A. M. Stuart

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-31 Yuming Chen , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Rebecca Willett

Ensemble methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), and the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) are widely used in sequential data assimilation, where state vectors are of huge…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-03 El houcine Bergou , Serge Gratton , Jan Mandel

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-04 Xin T. Tong

The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 [10] as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-04-08 Marco A. Iglesias , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart

The task of dynamic flow estimation is to construct an approximation of an evolving flow---and particularly, its response to disturbances---using measurements from available sensors. Building from previous work by Darakananda et al.~(Phys…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-05-19 Mathieu Le Provost , Jeff D. Eldredge

We present a practical implementation of the ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filter based on an iterative Sherman-Morrison formula. The new direct method exploits the special structure of the ensemble-estimated error covariance matrices in order to…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2015-02-03 Elias D. Nino-Ruiz , Adrian Sandu , Jeffrey Anderson

We study parameter estimation for non-global parameters in a low-dimensional chaotic model using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). By modifying existing techniques for using observational data to estimate global…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-09-03 Thomas Bellsky , Jesse Berwald , Lewis Mitchell

In this paper, the ensemble consider Kalman filter is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of uncertain parameters in nonlinear dynamic and measurement models. The ensemble Kalman filter can avoid using the Jacobian matrices and reduce…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-06-18 Tai-shan Lou , Nan-hua Chen , Hua Xiong , Ya-xi Li , Lei Wang

The use of model order reduction techniques in combination with ensemble-based methods for estimating the state of systems described by nonlinear partial differential equations has been of great interest in recent years in the data…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-18 Francesco A. B. Silva , Cecilia Pagliantini , Karen Veroy

Particle filters (also called sequential Monte Carlo methods) are widely used for state and parameter estimation problems in the context of nonlinear evolution equations. The recently proposed ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF)…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-04-11 Walter Acevedo , Jana de Wiljes , Sebastian Reich

Have you ever felt miserable because of a sudden whipsaw in the price that triggered an unfortunate trade? In an attempt to remove this noise, technical analysts have used various types of moving averages (simple, exponential, adaptive one…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-13 Eric Benhamou

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in state estimation and parameter estimation for the dynamic system where observational data is obtained sequentially in time. To reduce uncertainty and accelerate posterior inference, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Yuming Ba , Lijian Jiang , Na Ou

Filtering in spatially-extended dynamical systems is a challenging problem with significant practical applications such as numerical weather prediction. Particle filters allow asymptotically consistent inference but require infeasibly large…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-04 Matthew M. Graham , Alexandre H. Thiery