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More than 144 000 Australians were diagnosed with cancer in 2019. The majority will first present to their GP symptomatically, even for cancer for which screening programs exist. Diagnosing cancer in primary care is challenging due to the…
Process mining is a technique that performs an automatic analysis of business processes from a log of events with the promise of understanding how processes are executed in an organisation. Several models have been proposed to address this…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
Although not without controversy, readmission is entrenched as a hospital quality metric, with statistical analyses generally based on fitting a logistic-Normal generalized linear mixed model. Such analyses, however, ignore death as a…
One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…
Binary classification models which can assign probabilities to categories such as "the tissue is 75% likely to be tumorous" or "the chemical is 25% likely to be toxic" are well understood statistically, but their utility as an input to…
Bayesian adaptive designs have gained popularity in all phases of clinical trials with numerous new developments in the past few decades. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the need to establish evidence for the effectiveness of vaccines,…
External pilot trials of complex interventions are used to help determine if and how a confirmatory trial should be undertaken, providing estimates of parameters such as recruitment, retention and adherence rates. The decision to progress…
Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…
Uncertainty is a pervasive challenge in decision and risk management and it is usually studied by quantification and modeling. Interestingly, engineers and other decision makers usually manage uncertainty with strategies such as…
The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response, and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease…
Every year in the United States, 800,000 individuals suffer a stroke - one person every 40 seconds, with a death occurring every four minutes. While individual factors vary, certain predictors are more prevalent in determining stroke risk.…
The question of selecting the "best" amongst different choices is a common problem in statistics. In drug development, our motivating setting, the question becomes, for example: what is the dose that gives me a pre-specified risk of…
Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…
Given the cost and duration of phase III and phase IV clinical trials, the development of statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is vital. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to compute the probability of success based on…
Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making…
Patient-level health economic data collected alongside clinical trials are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. For end of life treatments, such as cancer…
In medical image segmentation, uncertainty estimates are often reported but rarely used to guide decisions. We study the missing step: how uncertainty maps are converted into actionable policies such as accepting, flagging, or deferring…