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We consider statistical learning question for $\psi$-weakly dependent processes, that unifies a large class of weak dependence conditions such as mixing, association,$\cdots$ The consistency of the empirical risk minimization algorithm is…
A fast convergence in a fixed-time of solutions of nonlinear dynamical systems, for which special requirements are satisfied on the derivative of a quadratic function calculated along the solutions of the system, is proposed. The conditions…
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
Approximate inference in dynamic systems is the problem of estimating the state of the system given a sequence of actions and partial observations. High precision estimation is fundamental in many applications like diagnosis, natural…
We raise the question of approximating the compressibility of a string with respect to a fixed compression scheme, in sublinear time. We study this question in detail for two popular lossless compression schemes: run-length encoding (RLE)…
Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising…
The remarkable results of Foster and Vohra was a starting point for a series of papers which show that any sequence of outcomes can be learned (with no prior knowledge) using some universal randomized forecasting algorithm and…
This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…
Prompt-based methods have been used extensively across NLP to build zero- and few-shot label predictors. Many NLP tasks are naturally structured: that is, their outputs consist of multiple labels which constrain each other. Annotating data…
We recently proposed a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions by minimization of their Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a more convenient approximating distribution. In this note we offer…
We demonstrate the effectiveness of the categorical distribution as a neural network output for next event prediction. This is done for both discrete-time and continuous-time event sequences. To model continuous-time processes, the…
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…
Assuming that $(X_t)_{t\in\Z}$ is a vector valued time series with a common marginal distribution admitting a density $f$, our aim is to provide a wide range of consistent estimators of $f$. We consider different methods of estimation of…
While modern large-scale datasets often consist of heterogeneous subpopulations -- for example, multiple demographic groups or multiple text corpora -- the standard practice of minimizing average loss fails to guarantee uniformly low losses…
The problem of behaviour prediction for linear parameter-varying systems is considered in the interval framework. It is assumed that the system is subject to uncertain inputs and the vector of scheduling parameters is unmeasurable, but all…
Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…
Stationary stochastic processes (SPs) are a key component of many probabilistic models, such as those for off-the-grid spatio-temporal data. They enable the statistical symmetry of underlying physical phenomena to be leveraged, thereby…
We consider a general method for the approximation of the distribution of a process conditioned to not hit a given set. Existing methods are based on particle system that are failable, in the sense that, in many situations , they are not…
For spatially dependent functional data, a generalized Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansion is commonly used to decompose data into an additive form of temporal components and spatially correlated coefficients. This structure provides a convenient…