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Stationarity is a very general, qualitative assumption, that can be assessed on the basis of application specifics. It is thus a rather attractive assumption to base statistical analysis on, especially for problems for which less general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Daniil Ryabko

We present new algorithms and fast implementations to find efficient approximations for modelling stochastic processes. For many numerical computations it is essential to develop finite approximations for stochastic processes. While the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Kipngeno Benard Kirui , Georg Ch. Pflug , Alois Pichler

The setting is a stationary, ergodic time series. The challenge is to construct a sequence of functions, each based on only finite segments of the past, which together provide a strongly consistent estimator for the conditional probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-06-19 G. Morvai , S. Yakowitz , L. Gyorfi

We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define several notions of randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-24 Gert de Cooman , Jasper De Bock

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

We consider nonparametric or universal sequential hypothesis testing problem when the distribution under the null hypothesis is fully known but the alternate hypothesis corresponds to some other unknown distribution. These algorithms are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-08-30 Jithin K. Sreedharan , Vinod Sharma

In this article, we show that a general class of weakly stationary time series can be modeled applying Gaussian subordinated processes. We show that, for any given weakly stationary time series $(z_t)_{z\in\mathbb{N}}$ with given equal…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-24 Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

We observe a length-$n$ sample generated by an unknown,stationary ergodic Markov process (\emph{model}) over a finite alphabet $\mathcal{A}$. Given any string $\bf{w}$ of symbols from $\mathcal{A}$ we want estimates of the conditional…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-06-11 Meysam Asadi , Ramezan Paravi Torghabeh , Narayana P. Santhanam

We consider prediction theory for stationary stochastic processes in continuous time. We discuss prediction using the whole (infinite) past, and using only a finite section of the past. The solutions to both these classical problems have…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-17 N. H. Bingham

We consider the kernel partial least squares algorithm for non-parametric regression with stationary dependent data. Probabilistic convergence rates of the kernel partial least squares estimator to the true regression function are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-13 Marco Singer , Tatyana Krivobokova , Axel Munk

The purpose of this paper is to prove a weak convergence result for empirical processes indexed in general classes of functions and with an underlying $\alpha$-mixing sequence of random variables. In particular the uniformly boundedness…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-09 Maria Mohr

For each $n \geq 1$, let $\{X_{j,n}\}_{1 \leq j \leq n}$ be a sequence of strictly stationary random variables. In this article, we give some asymptotic weak dependence conditions for the convergence in distribution of the point process…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-05-28 Raluca Balan , Sana Louhichi

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Fumiya Akashi , Konstantinos Fokianos , Junichi Hirukawa

Pathwise predictability of continuous time processes is studied in deterministic setting. We discuss uniform prediction in some weak sense with respect to certain classes of inputs. More precisely, we study possibility of approximation of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2009-11-13 Nikolai Dokuchaev

A finite dimensional abstract approximation and convergence theory is developed for estimation of the distribution of random parameters in infinite dimensional discrete time linear systems with dynamics described by regularly dissipative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-15 Melike Sirlanci , Susan E. Luczak , I. Gary Rosen

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-08 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu

We prove a strong approximation result for the empirical process associated to a stationary sequence of real-valued random variables, under dependence conditions involving only indicators of half lines. This strong approximation result also…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-22 Jérôme Dedecker , Florence Merlevède , Emmanuel Rio

Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Yunyi Zhang , Efstathios Paparoditis , Dimitris N. Politis