Related papers: On predictive probability matching priors
Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then…
The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…
In multi-parameter models, reference priors typically depend on the parameter or quantity of interest, and it is well known that this is necessary to produce objective posterior distributions with optimal properties. There are, however,…
The median probability model (MPM) Barbieri and Berger (2004) is defined as the model consisting of those variables whose marginal posterior probability of inclusion is at least 0.5. The MPM rule yields the best single model for prediction…
We propose modified frequentist definitions for the determination of confidence intervals for the case of Poisson statistics. We require that 1-\beta^{'} \geq \sum_{n=o}^{n_{obs}+k} P(n|\lambda) \geq \alpha^{'}. We show that this definition…
Regularized linear regression is central to machine learning, yet its high-dimensional behavior with informative priors remains poorly understood. We provide the first exact asymptotic characterization of training and test risks for maximum…
Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…
Asymptotically unbiased priors, introduced by Hartigan (1965), are designed to achieve second-order unbiasedness of Bayes estimators. This paper extends Hartigan's framework to non-i.i.d. models by deriving a system of partial differential…
This article illustrates how indirect or prior information can be optimally used to construct a prediction region that maintains a target frequentist coverage rate. If the indirect information is accurate, the volume of the prediction…
To include parameter uncertainty into probabilistic climate forecasts one must first specify a prior. We advocate the use of objective priors, and, in particular, the Jeffreys' Prior. In previous work we have derived expressions for the…
Given a finite collection of probability measures defined on subsets of a measurable space, how can we determine if they are compatible, in the sense that they can be realized as conditional distributions of a single probability measure on…
We propose modified frequentist definition for the determination of confidence intervals for the case of Poisson statistics. Namely, we require that 1-\beta' \geq \sum_{n=o}^{n_{obs}+k} P(n|\lambda) \geq \alpha'. We show that this…
In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…
We compute the uniform probability that finitely many polynomials over a finite field are pairwise coprime and compare the result with the formula one gets using the natural density as probability measure. It will turn out that the formulas…
We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation and testing for a multivariate monotone density. Instead of following the conventional Bayesian route of putting a prior distribution complying with the monotonicity restriction,…
We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…
We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…
The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…
The study of finite approximations of probability measures has a long history. In (Xu and Berger, 2017), the authors focus on constrained finite approximations and, in particular, uniform ones in dimension $d=1$. The present paper gives an…