Related papers: On predictive probability matching priors
Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…
Recently there has been increasing interest in probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that return full probability measures, instead of point estimates, over the solution and can incorporate uncertainty over the…
This article considers the parametric estimation of $Pr(X<Y<Z)$ and its generalizations based on several well-known one-parameter and two-parameter continuous distributions. It is shown that for some one-parameter distributions and when…
The Bayesian formulation of inverse problems is attractive for three primary reasons: it provides a clear modelling framework; means for uncertainty quantification; and it allows for principled learning of hyperparameters. The posterior…
Objective priors for sequential experiments are considered. Common priors, such as the Jeffreys prior and the reference prior, will typically depend on the stopping rule used for the sequential experiment. New expressions for reference…
In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the…
The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…
Prior specification for nonparametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. Realistically, a statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions…
While mixtures of Gaussian distributions have been studied for more than a century (Pearson, 1894), the construction of a reference Bayesian analysis of those models still remains unsolved, with a general prohibition of the usage of…
The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…
This paper studies quasi Bayesian estimation and uncertainty quantification for an unknown function that is identified by a nonparametric conditional moment restriction. We derive contraction rates for a class of Gaussian process priors.…
In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…
The prominent Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) result claims that the posterior distribution after centering by the efficient estimator and standardizing by the square root of the total Fisher information is nearly standard normal. In…
We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function $u$ from noisy measurements $y$ of a known, possibly nonlinear, map $\mathcal{G}$ applied to $u$. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the…
Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…
Given data from a Poisson point process with intensity $(x,y) \mapsto n \mathbf{1}(f(x)\leq y),$ frequentist properties for the Bayesian reconstruction of the support boundary function $f$ are derived. We mainly study compound Poisson…
Background: Analyses of elastic scattering with the optical model (OMP) are widely used in nuclear reactions. Purpose: Previous work compared a traditional frequentist approach and a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainties in the OMP.…
In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…
Multiple-environment Markov decision processes (MEMDPs) equip an MDP with several probabilistic transition functions (one per possible environment) so that the state is observable but the environment is not. Previous work studies two…
We consider the problem of predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in a high-dimensional Gaussian model with exact sparsity constraints on the location parameters. We study the first order asymptotic minimax risk of Bayes…