Related papers: Projected likelihood contrasts for testing homogen…
We consider PAC learning of probability distributions (a.k.a. density estimation), where we are given an i.i.d. sample generated from an unknown target distribution, and want to output a distribution that is close to the target in total…
Hypothesis test plays a key role in uncertain statistics based on uncertain measure. This paper extends the parametric hypothesis of a single uncertain population to multiple cases, thereby addressing a broader range of scenarios. First, an…
Testing for white noise is a classical yet important problem in statistics, especially for diagnostic checks in time series modeling and linear regression. For high-dimensional time series in the sense that the dimension $p$ is large in…
In this paper, we obtain a new characterization result for symmetric distributions based on the entropy measure. Using the characterization, we propose a nonparametric test to test the symmetry of a distribution. We also develop the…
Testing for regime switching when the regime switching probabilities are specified either as constants (`mixture models') or are governed by a finite-state Markov chain (`Markov switching models') are long-standing problems that have also…
We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared…
We propose an adjusted likelihood ratio test of two-factor separability (Kronecker product structure) for unbalanced multivariate repeated measures data. Here we address the particular case where the within subject correlation is believed…
Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of…
We propose the density ratio permutation test, a hypothesis test that assesses whether the ratio between two densities is proportional to a known function based on independent samples from each distribution. The test uses an efficient…
In this paper, we propose several statistics for testing uniformity under progressive Type-I interval censoring. We obtain the critical points of these statistics and study the power of the proposed tests against a representative set of…
Particle physics experiments use likelihood ratio tests extensively to compare hypotheses and to construct confidence intervals. Often, the null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic is approximated by a $\chi^2$ distribution,…
In the problem of learning with label proportions, which we call LLP learning, the training data is unlabeled, and only the proportions of examples receiving each label are given. The goal is to learn a hypothesis that predicts the…
This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…
Clustering methods such as k-means have found widespread use in a variety of applications. This paper proposes a formal testing procedure to determine whether a null hypothesis of a single cluster, indicating homogeneity of the data, can be…
We study the rate of decay of the probability of error for distinguishing between a sparse signal with noise, modeled as a sparse mixture, from pure noise. This problem has many applications in signal processing, evolutionary biology,…
We consider a new method for estimating the parameters of univariate Gaussian mixture models. The method relies on a nonparametric density estimator $\hat{f}_n$ (typically a kernel estimator). For every set of Gaussian mixture components,…
We review several statistical complexity measures proposed over the last decade and a half as general indicators of structure or correlation. Recently, Lopez-Ruiz, Mancini, and Calbet [Phys. Lett. A 209 (1995) 321] introduced another…
In a bivariate setting, we consider the problem of detecting a sparse contamination or mixture component, where the effect manifests itself as a positive dependence between the variables, which are otherwise independent in the main…
The hardcore model on a graph $G$ with parameter $\lambda>0$ is a probability measure on the collection of all independent sets of $G$, that assigns to each independent set $I$ a probability proportional to $\lambda^{|I|}$. In this paper we…
In this paper we explore partial coherence as a tool for evaluating causal influence of one signal sequence on another. In some cases the signal sequence is sampled from a time- or space-series. The key idea is to establish a connection…