Related papers: Augmented GARCH sequences: Dependence structure an…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
We conclude our work [arXiv:2403.07628, arXiv:2503.12644] on asymptotic expansions at the soft edge for the classical $n$-dimensional Gaussian and Laguerre ensembles, now studying the gap-probability generating functions. We show that the…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
L\'evy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. We propose an essentially asymptotically efficient estimation method for the system parameters of…
This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…
In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the Gaussian quasi maximum likelihood estimator of a stationary GARCH process with heavy-tailed innovations. This means that the innovations are regularly varying with index…
In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…
Strong mixing property holds for a broad class of linear and nonlinear time series models such as ARMA and GARCH models. In this article we study correlation structure of strong mixing sequences, and some asymptotic properties are…
We develop a nonparametric extension of the sequential generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test and corresponding time-uniform confidence sequences for the mean of a univariate distribution. By utilizing a geometric interpretation of the GLR…
We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…
In many applications, hypothesis testing is based on an asymptotic distribution of statistics. The aim of this paper is to clarify and extend multiple correction procedures when the statistics are asymptotically Gaussian. We propose a…
Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) are introduced as dependence models for the joint innovation distribution of multivariate time series (MTS). Following the popular copula-GARCH approach for modeling dependent MTS data, a…
Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other applications in finance. It is well-known that financial time series display conditional heteroscedasticity. Among the large number of…
In this paper, we use the results in Andrews and Cheng (2012), extended to allow for parameters to be near or at the boundary of the parameter space, to derive the asymptotic distributions of the two test statistics that are used in the…
Generalized linear statistics are an unifying class that contains U-statistics, U-quantiles, L-statistics as well as trimmed and winsorized U-statistics. For example, many commonly used estimators of scale fall into this class.…
In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Realized Hyperbolic GARCH (A-Realized HYGARCH) process to model the long memory of high-frequency time series with possible structural breaks. The structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept…
We develop the theory of a new type of asymptotic expansions for functions of two variables the coefficients of which contain functions of one of the variables as well as functions of the quotient of these two variables. These combined…
We develop the theory of a new type of asymptotic expansions for functions of two variables the coefficients of which contain functions of one of the variables as well as functions of the quotient of these two variables. These combined…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…