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Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Within a Bayesian retrospective framework, we present a way of examining the distribution of \cps through a novel set estimator. For a given level, $\alpha$, we aim at smallest sets that cover all \cps with a probability of at least…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Tobias Siems , Marc Hellmuth , Volkmar Liebscher

Let $X_1,X_2, \ldots $ be independent random uniform points in a bounded domain $A \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ with smooth boundary. Define the coverage threshold $R_n$ to be the smallest $r$ such that $A$ is covered by the balls of radius $r$…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-12 Mathew D. Penrose

To segment a sequence of independent random variables at an unknown number of change-points, we introduce new procedures that are based on thresholding the likelihood ratio statistic. We also study confidence regions based on the likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Xiao Fang , Jian Li , David Siegmund

In this paper we propose a new approach for sequential monitoring of a parameter of a $d$-dimensional time series, which can be estimated by approximately linear functionals of the empirical distribution function. We consider a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-26 Holger Dette , Josua Gösmann

While the problem of testing multivariate normality has received considerable attention in the classical low-dimensional setting where the sample size $n$ is much larger than the feature dimension $d$ of the data, there is presently a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Xin Bing , Derek Latremouille

We consider clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is compared with a control in pre-specified patient subpopulations. In such settings, adaptive enrichment designs allow the enrolled population to be modified at an interim…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Enyu Li , Nigel Stallard , Ekkehard Glimm , Dominic Magirr , Peter K. Kimani

An advantage of methods that base inference on a posterior distribution is that credible regions are readily obtained. Except in well-specified situations, however, there is no guarantee that such regions will achieve the nominal…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-28 Nicholas Syring , Ryan Martin

Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution are determined by the ambiguity set---the set of plausible transition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Marek Petrik , Reazul Hasan Russell

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Elena Bortolato , Laura Ventura

We consider interval estimation of the difference between two binomial proportions. Several methods of constructing such an interval are known. Unfortunately those confidence intervals have poor coverage probability: it is significantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-11 Wojciech Zieliński

Linear combinations of multinomial probabilities, such as those resulting from contingency tables, are of use when evaluating classification system performance. While large sample inference methods for these combinations exist, small sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Katherine A. Batterton , Christine M. Schubert , Richard L. Warr

The upper bounds on the coverage probabilities of the confidence regions based on blockwise empirical likelihood [Kitamura (1997)] and nonstandard expansive empirical likelihood [Nordman et al. (2013)] methods for time series data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-01 Xianyang Zhang , Xiaofeng Shao

It is well known that the asymptotic variance of sample quantiles can be reduced under heterogeneity relative to the i.i.d. setting. However, asymptotically correct confidence intervals for quantiles are not yet available. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 John H. J. Einmahl , Yi He

Image analysis frequently deals with shape estimation and image reconstruction. The ob jects of interest in these problems may be thought of as random sets, and one is interested in finding a representative, or expected, set. We consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-09 Hanna K. Jankowski , Larissa I. Stanberry

We study the problem of estimating finite sample confidence intervals of the mean of a normal population under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider both the known and unknown variance cases and construct differentially…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-11-13 Vishesh Karwa , Salil Vadhan

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Well-recommended methods of forming `confidence intervals' for a binomial proportion give interval estimates that do not actually meet the definition of a confidence interval, in that their coverages are sometimes lower than the nominal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-30 Paul H. Garthwaite , Maha W. Moustafa , Fadlalla G. Elfadaly

The Clopper-Pearson confidence interval has ever been documented as an exact approach in some statistics literature. More recently, such approach of interval estimation has been introduced to probabilistic control theory and has been…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-13 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena